The Economist - 04.12.2021

56 Asia TheEconomistDecember4th 2021

tiongrowthtorallyvotes,typicallybyac­

cusing “a particularcommunity”—a cir­

cumlocutionreferringtoIndia’s15%Mus­

limminority—ofhavingtoomanybabies.

NarendraModi, theprimeminister, has

warnedof alooming population explo­

sion.MembersofhisBharatiyaJanataPar­

ty(bjp) haveevencalledforlimitstofamily

size.InJulylegislatorsinbjp­controlled

UttarPradeshproposeda lawthatwould

denygovernmentservicestofamilieswith

morethantwochildren.

TheIndiangovernment’snewnumbers

maycurtail theseexecrablesuggestions.

FertilityamongIndianMuslimsisgeneral­

lyhigherthanamongHindus.Thisisin

partbecausesomanyarepoor.Butthedif­

ference has steadily narrowed; between

2005 and 2015 thefertilityrateamongIndi­

anMuslimsdroppedfrom3.4to2.6.Data

onreligionhaveyettobeparsedfromthe

latestsurvey,butthefertilityratesit shows

forIndia’sonlytwoMuslim­majorityterri­

tories,theLakshadweepIslandsandJam­

mu&Kashmir,arefarbelowreplacement

levelandamongthelowestinIndia,at1.4.

Whilea decliningfertilityrateisbroad­

lya signthatIndiaisricherandbetteredu­

catedthanbefore,it willalsobringworries.

Economistshavelongheraldedthe“demo­

graphicdividend”,whenproductivityrises

becauseabiggersliceofthepopulation

pyramidisofworkingage.Thiswindow

willnowbenarrower,andIndiawillhave

tocontendsoonerwitha fast­growingpro­

portionofelderlypeopletocarefor.

Starkdiscrepanciesinfertilityratesbe­

tweenstatesalsocarrydangers.Infuture

moreIndiansfromthecrowdednorthwill

seekjobs inthe richerandless fecund

south.Politicianswillalsofacethehotis­

sueofhowtoallotparliamentaryconstitu­

encies.Backin 1971 MrsGandhifrozethe

distributionofseatsamongstates. There­

sultisthatwhereasanmpfromKeralanow

representssome 1.8m constituents, one

fromUttarPradeshrepresentsnearly3m.

Whenthefreezeonredistrictingliftssome

timeinthenextdecade,thesedisparities

willspawna bigfight.n

A refreshing dip

Total fertility rate, births per woman

Sources:NFHS;UnitedNations *Data from NFHS start in 1992

6

5

4

3

2.1

1

0

1970 9080 2000 2010

India*

World (NFHS)

India (UN)

China

Approximate

replacement rate

PoliticsinKyrgyzstan

Ready for take­off?

T

helasttimeKyrgyzstanhada general

election, just over a year ago, the conse­

quences were, by any democratic criterion,

far from orthodox—and even by the eccen­

tric  and  sometimes  violent  standards  of

the mountain republic they were unusual.

When the incumbent president wangled a

parliamentary majority with copious vote­

buying, protests erupted that led to his res­

ignation.  At  the  same  time  Sadyr  Japarov,

who was serving a ten­year prison term for

kidnapping,  was  sprung  by  his  backers

from  jail  at  night  and  propelled  into  the

posts  of  prime  minister  and  acting  presi­

dent.  He  was  subsequently  confirmed  as

president at an election in January. Now, in

the parliamentary election that he oversaw

on  November  28th,  a  majority  was  duly

found to support his agenda. And this time

a revolution looks less likely. 

The  Organisation  for  Security  and  Co­

operation in Europe, which monitors elec­

tions among other things, pronounced this

one  broadly  “competitive”.  Vote­buying

was  less  blatant  and  the  poll  was  fairer

than usual, at least by the low standards of

Central Asia.

All  the  same,  there  is  plenty  to  worry

about  in  the  region’s  smallest  and  most

fragile  state.  Democracy  is  hardly  secure.

Parliament  has  rarely  stood  up  to  Kyrgyz­

stan’s presidents, several with reputations

for  corruption  and  high­handedness.  Mr

Japarov has pushed through constitutional

changes to strengthen presidential powers

at the expense of parliament, whose mem­

bership  he  has  thinned.  This  week’s  elec­

tion result was meant to be a vote of confi­

dence.  A  deputy  prime  minister  recently

predicted  that  Kyrgyzstan  would  “take  off

like a rocket” afterwards. 

Alas,  lift­off  may  be  delayed.  Pro­gov­

ernment  parties,  most  of  them  newly

minted  marriages  of  convenience,  did  in­

deed do well, taking most of the 54 party­

list  seats.  Mr  Japarov’s  backers  also  won  a

good  number  of  single­seat  districts.  The

president now commands a clear majority

in the 90­seat house. 

But  proponents  of  reform  and  clean

government  made  little  headway.  A  turn­

out of 35% suggests an alarming level of fa­

tigue among voters, after four nationwide

plebiscites  in  just  over  a  year.  The  new,

mixed  electoral  system  bewildered  many;

nearly  10%  of  ballots  were  spoiled. Actual

policy  was  hardly  debated  by  candidates

during the campaign.

Above all, despite its relative cleanness,

the election did nothing to dispel an air of

thuggishness and dirty dealing that hangs

over  Mr  Japarov’s  regime.  The  brother  of

the president’s feared security chief, Kam­

chybek Tashiyev, won a seat. A neighbour­

ing  district  was  easily  claimed  by  the

brother  of  an  immensely  powerful  mafia

kingpin,  Rayimbek  Matraimov,  who  has

been  accused  of  benefiting  from  a  host  of

cross­border smuggling rackets. 

Earlier  this  year  Mr  Japarov  made  a

great  show  of  Mr  Matraimov’s  arrest  and

admission  of  guilt,  though  it  was  unclear

precisely  what  crimes  had  been  acknowl­

edged.  But  his  fine  of  $3,000 looks  like  a

good bargain for Mr Matraimov, who, in a

land  where  state  welfare  barely  exists,

stays popular in his southern fief by sprin­

kling it with hospitals and mosques.

A few days after the election, thuggish­

ness was on display in a street in Bishkek,

the capital, when masked goons set about

an opposition leader, Omurbek Tekebayev,

who  has  castigated  Mr  Japarov,  especially

over the expropriation of Kyrgyzstan’s big­

gest foreign­exchange earner, Kumtor gold

mine, from its Canadian owner.

That kind of intimidation, plus a reser­

voir  of  popularity  for  Mr  Japarov  in  some

quarters, may for the time being deter un­

rest  of  the  sort  that  has  curtailed  three

presidencies  in  the  past  decade  or  so.

Yet Askar Sydykov, who heads the Interna­

tional  Business  Council,  a  lobby  for  the

country’s beleaguered entrepreneurs, says

businesspeople have a litany of problems:

inflation;  wild  swings  in  the  value  of  the

som, the national currency; pandemic­re­

lated  disruptions  to  cross­border  trade;

and  energy  shortages  exacerbated  by  gov­

ernment corruption and ineptitude, just as

winter begins to bite.

Mr Japarov claims, somewhat plausibly,

that he inherited these failings. But voters

will  not  swallowthis  excuse  for  long—es­

pecially  sincehehas  grabbed  so  many  le­

vers of power.n

B ISHKEK

The election was cleaner than usual,

but an air of thuggishness still prevails