Advanced Automotive Technology: Visions of a Super-Efficient Family Car

In OTA’s analysis, the alternative vehicles are essentially identical in size, aerodynamic

characteristics,^70 body material and design, tire characteristics, and types of accessories.

Consequently, the primary physical differences among the different vehicles are powertrain

components (engine, transmission, electric motors and controllers, energy storage devices, and

any peak-power devices), some differences in accessories depending on availability of waste heat,

and any differences in body structure, suspension system, and tires caused by differences in

powertrain weight.

Based on these differences among the vehicles, corresponding differences in operation and

maintenance costs are likely to arise primarily from:

. battery replacement costs,
. differences in maintenance costs between electric drivetrainsand ICE drivetrains,
. differences in longevity between electric and ICE drivetrains, and
. differences in energy costs.

Battery Replacement Costs

A battery for a mid-size EV with significant range (80 miles or longer) can cost $10,000 at
retail, and the high-power density battery a hybrid vehicle would use is likely to cost at least a few
thousand dollars. Although the long-term PNGV goal for battery lifetime is 10 years, no current
EV battery has yet demonstrated a life of five years. If EV and hybrid batteries do not last the
lifetime of the car--which seems likely--the substantial expense of battery replacement will play a
weighty role in lifecycle O&M costs.

Differences in Maintenance Costs and Longevity Between EV and ICE Drivetrains

There is a widespread belief among analysts that electric drivetrains will prove to be

substantially more robust than ICE drivetrains, requiring less maintenance and lasting longer.

OTA’s interviewees in the industry readily agreed that maintenance costs (both scheduled and

unscheduled) would be lower in vehicles. with electric drivetrains. This view is based on

experience with EVs in Europe and elsewhere and extrapolation of the characteristics of

drivetrain components in other settings, such as electric motor use in factories. The value of this

experience as a predictor of future performance may be compromised somewhat, however, by the

substantial differences in component characteristics between future electric vehicles and current

and older vehicles (e.g., future electric motors will be much lighter), and the harsh environment

that EV and HEV components must endure (unlike a factory environment). Also, low EV

(^70) In reality, there would likely be differences in aerodynamics among the different types of vehicles. The drivetrain differences might allow more
or less flexibility in aerodynamic design depending on cooling requirement and the ability, or lack of it to use conformal shapes for energy storage
and for the basic power system.