the existing internal combustion engine/steel structure paradigm that has been evolving during the
past 80 years. By advanced conventional technologies, OTA refers to evolutionary improvements
to internal combustion engines and materials (e.g., direct injection of fuel variable valve timing,
and substitution of aluminum for steel) that operate on the same physical principles as existing
engines and materials, and require no major discontinuities of manufacturing methods.By leapfrog technologies, OTA refers to use of powertrains and materials that are radically
different from today’s (e.g., electric drivetrains, composite structural materials). These generally
operate on different physical principles compared with existing technologies, and may require new
manufacturing methods and supporting infrastructures.OTA found rather different attitudes toward these two categories of advanced vehicle
technologies in the United States, Europe, and Japan.Leapfrog Technologies.
With support from federal programs going back over 20 years and culminating in PNGV, the
U.S. R&D effort on leapfrog automotive technologies is currently the most comprehensive, best
organized, and best funded in the world. No other country has collaborative R&D organizations
comparable to USCAR, the DOE national laboratories, and PNGV, nor the regulatory
aggressiveness of California’s ZEV regulations. Using the PNGV budget of $270 million in FY
1995 as an estimate of federal spending, no other government comes within a factor of two of this
level.
While other countries have specific areas of relative strength (e.g., the Japanese industry’s
expertise in advanced ceramics) the more comprehensive U.S. approach is likely to put U.S.
companies in a strong position for leapfrog technologies. Whether this technological lead will be
translated into early commercialization in the United States will depend on future government
policies as well as how the vehicles perform and how much they cost relative to steadily
improving conventional vehicles of the same generation.
Advanced Conventional Technologies
The U.S. car industry’s attitude toward commercializing advanced conventional automotive
technologies to improve fuel economy does not appear to be as aggressive as in some other
countries, owing principally to differences in market forces. For example, German automakers
have taken the lead in developing highly efficient direct injection diesel engines, whereas no U.S.
manufacturer produces a diesel-powered passenger car for the U.S. market. In OTA’s view, if
NOX emissions from these engines can be reduced through the use of improved catalysts, diesel-
powered cars could make a comeback in the U.S. market. Based on their experience with building
small, efficient diesels for passenger cars, European automakers may also be in an excellent
position to exploit the use of compact diesel power plants in hybrid electric vehicles. This is a
promising option currently being evaluated by the PNGV program.