The Economist - USA (20212-12-04)

50 Middle East & Africa The Economist December 4th 2021

T

his yearthedriversofFormula1 (f1)

madea change:insteadofcelebrating

aftera racebysprayingeachotherwith

champagne,theyswitchedtosparkling

wine.Nottobefrugal—f1 isnotthatkind

ofsport—butbecauseofa newsponsor­

shipdeal.OfficialsinSaudiArabiafacea

harderdecision.Thekingdom,which

willhosta raceonDecember5th,bans

alcohol.Some,though,thinkit may

loosenupfortheevent.“Champagneis

partoftheceremony,”saysa royalad­

viser.“Jeddah[thehostcity]willhave

seennothinglikeit.”

Saudi­watcherspredictboozyparties

onyachtsand,perhaps,atselectvenues

onland.Thatwouldbeinkeepingwith

thereformsofMuhammadbinSalman,

thecrownprince,whohasignoredpuri­

tanicalclericsandcurbedthemorality

police,whilebreakingtaboosbyopening

upcinemasandlettingwomendrive.

Concertswerelargelyprohibitednot

longago;nowfemaledjs jiveinpublic.

Thef1 racecouldmarktheliftingofthe

alcoholban,saysa seniorofficial.

Thekingdomisreconsideringalcohol

asit triestoluretouristsawayfrom

destinationsliketheUnitedArabEmir­

ates(uae), whichhaslongallowedfor­

eignerstopartakeandlegaliseddrinking

foreveryonelastyear.PrinceMuham­

mad hasinvestedincruiseshipsthat

servealcoholoffshoreandcarvedout

vastroyalpreserveswiththeirown(non­

Islamic)bylaws.Hehostsa RedSeafesti­

valwherespiritsflow.Luxuryhotelsare

goinguponthecoastandneartourist

sitesinland.A launchpartyforonein

Octoberfeaturedillicitsangríalacedwith

whisky(whichdeservestobebannedfor

badtastealone)anda raveonthesand.

SomeofPrinceMuhammad’sadvisers

wanthimtoenlistliberalclericstohelp

explaintoSaudiswhywhatwasonce

haram(forbidden)maysoonbehalal

(permitted).“Thesin[ofdrinkingwine]

isgreaterthanthebenefit,”saysthe

Koranrathermildly.Itdoesnotprescribe

a punishmentfortheact,thoughSaudi

judgeshavebeenknowntosentence

offendersto 80 ormorelashes.Forcen­

turiestheearlycaliphshostedparties

withalcoholandletjuristsargueover

whetherIslambannedallboozeorjust

thatfromfermentedgrapes.

“We’reopeningourcountryuptothe

world,”saysKhalidal­Faisal,a royal

overseeingtheraceinJeddah.Still,there

arereasonstothinkthatthepodium,at

least,willbedry.Bahrain,Qatarandthe

uaehaveallhostedcarraces—andused

blanderfizzydrinks,suchassparkling

rosewater,onthewinner’sstand.Years

agoanf1 teamsponsoredbySaudiAra­

bia’sstateairlinecelebrated(inpublic)

withorangejuice.Itgottheirclothesjust

aswetaschampagnewouldhavedone.

BoozeinSaudiArabia

Drinking and driving

Willa carracemarktheendofthekingdom’sbanonalcohol?

Aratherun-Saudicelebration

purity  (a  bomb  requires  about  25kg  of

weapons­grade uranium). It has also start­

ed  turning  gaseous  uranium  into  solid

metal, a key step in bomb­making. On De­

cember  1st  the  agency  reported  that  Iran

had begun installing advanced centrifuges

and  spinning  uranium  up  to  20%  at  For­

dow,  a  fortified  site  dug  into  a  mountain

where the jcpoaforbids any enrichment.

Before this round of talks, Iran indicat­

ed it would not discuss its own violations,

only America’s. It wants an apology for Mr

Trump’s  withdrawal,  along  with  compen­

sation  and  a  promise  that  it  will  not  hap­

pen  again.  Reasonable  as  it  may  seem,

some of this is impossible. America cannot

provide  such  a  guarantee—nor,  for  that

matter, can the deal’s other signatories, in­

cluding Iran itself.

Meanwhile,  Iran’s  nuclear  activity  may

soon  render  the  jcpoairrelevant.  Even  if

forbidden  work  is  halted,  Iran  has  gained

valuable know­how that cannot be forgot­

ten. American officials say time is short to

restore  the  deal,  but  refuse  to  say  what

would  constitute  an  irreparable  step  on

Iran’s part. “We’ll know it when we see it,”

says Rob Malley, America’s lead negotiator.

Enrique  Mora,  the  eu’s  top  diplomat,

said on November 29th that Iran had at last

agreed to discuss not only sanctions but al­

so its own activities. Such is the dire state

of the deal that this qualifies as progress.

Hardliners in Tehran believe the jcpoa

is  not  worth  the  effort.  America,  they  ar­

gue,  will  preserve  non­nuclear  sanctions

that  hobble  Iran’s  economy.  They  would

rather  shun  the  West,  pursue  trade  with

China  and  focus  on  building  a  so­called

“resistance economy” at home.

Yet recent events back home expose the

futility of this approach. Residents of Isfa­

han,  in  central  Iran,  have  held  weeks  of

protests in the Zayandeh Roud (pictured), a

dried­up riverbed that snakes through the

city.  Farmers  started  the  demonstration,

angry about a long drought that has ruined

their  livelihoods.  The  government,  they

said, has done little to help.

Water  shortages  are  common  in  Iran.

The un says that available water per person

has dropped by 28% over the past three de­

cades, to 1,675 cubic metres a year, a level it

defines as “water stress”. In July there were

protests  in  Khuzestan,  a  south­western

province,  after  residents  went  for  days

without running water in scorching heat.

The  drought  is  not  directly  linked  to

sanctions:  it  stems  from  decades  of  mis­

management,  water­intensive  farming

and climate change. Yet even a more atten­

tive  government  would  find  it  hard  to  fix

such problems while under sanctions that

limit access to both foreign technology and

hard currency.

That will be a problem for Mr Raisi, who

campaigned  on  a  pledge  to  tackle  Iran’s

myriad socioeconomic woes. He scored an

early  win  on  the  pandemic:  54%  of  Irani­

ans  are  now  fully  vaccinated,  up  from  3%

when he took office. It helped that Ali Kha­

menei,  the  supreme  leader,  dropped  his

objections to Western vaccines just around

the time when Mr Raisi was inaugurated.

The new president has made a point of

embarking  on  weekly  listening  tours  to

outlying  provinces.  What  he  has  heard  is

frustration. The rial has lost 86% of its val­

ue in the past five years. Though inflation

eased last month, it is still running at 44%

a  year.  Prices  for  staple  foods  like  milk,

bread and eggs are rising even faster. In re­

cent  years  there  have  been  frequent  prot­

ests over living conditions, despite a some­

times brutal crackdown by the authorities.

Some  interlocutors  have  sought  to  ap­

peal  to  Iran’s  self­interest.  Even  if  Mr

Trump  (or  someone  like  him)  returned  to

power  in  2025,  reviving  the  jcpoa now

would  give  Iran  three  years  of  reduced

sanctions and opportunities for foreign in­

vestment:  better,  surely,  to  face  the  next

round  of  “maximum  pressure”  from  a

stronger  position.  Mr  Raisi  andhisboss,

Mr Khamenei, will have to decidewhether

such pragmatism trumps ideology.n