THENEWYORKER,DECEMBER13, 2021 49
that police officers had been given gen
erous bonuses to keep going. The in
stitution is still largely intact, he said:
“Most people in the security forces have
not made up their minds.”
In September, I was invited to sit in
on a video conference of local leaders
inside Belarus. But, by the time of the
meeting, about a dozen of the leaders
had been arrested. Others had fled the
country; they suspected that the regime
had placed a mole among them. “Peo
ple are quite scared,” one of the partic
ipants on the call told Tsikhanouskaya.
“They are packing their suitcases.”
Some opponents of Lukashenka have
attempted a more forceful response. In
the past six months, Belarusian officials
have arrested several people who had
smuggled weapons into the country, in
the hope of setting off a revolt. Vadim
Prokopiev, an exile leader who lives in
Warsaw, told me that he thought Tsi
khanouskaya’s measured approach was
doomed. “I am pushing her and push
ing her,” he said. “But they prefer talking.”
A senior official in the Biden Ad
ministration told me that it was diffi
cult to foresee an early end to the Lu
kashenka regime. In July, Tsikhanouskaya
visited the White House; the U.S. tight
ened sanctions soon afterward, and did
so again this month. But more assertive
measures to remove Lukashenka seem
likely to provoke a regional confronta
tion. Putin will not relinquish his influ
ence in Belarus without a fight. “She
needs to think about the long game,”
the official said.
Tsikhanouskaya said that she had no
wish to confront Russia; she hoped that
some accommodation would be possi
ble. Still, she conceded that it was Eu
rope, not Russia, that could provide a
vision of the country’s future: “Europe’s
experience in guaranteeing the rule of
law, human rights, an independent ju
diciary, and free media are of primary
importance to the new, reborn Belarus.”
The political situation makes fund
raising difficult. Tsikhanouskaya’s group
gets very little money from supporters
in Belarus, where the government has
tracked down donors and put them in
prison. The team’s initiatives are sup
ported by Western N.G.O.s and by pri
vate contributors, mostly Belarusians
living abroad; the Lithuanian govern
ment also provides security, office space,
and housing. But, if the group accepts
money directly from the U.S. govern
ment, it risks being depicted in Belarus
as a puppet of the West.
Lukashenka’s regime already seems
determined to smear Tsikhanouskaya.
In July, Grigory Azarenok, an anchor
on stateowned TV, called her a “mus
tached cow” and a “dastardly woman”
with “a rotten stench.” Of Tsikhanou
skaya’s visit to the White House, Aza
renok said, “Such bootlicking, such ser
vility, such joy.” He cut to scenes of
bombing in Ukraine, which he falsely
claimed were caused by Americans—a
prelude to what Tsikhanouskaya’s ef
forts would bring.
Despite the odds, the opposition
professed optimism that Lukashenka
couldn’t continue such intense repres
sion indefinitely. “When he begins
to reform, it will all unravel,” Franak
Viačorka, a political adviser, told me.
I found a similarly upbeat mood in
side Belarus, even after waves of ar
rests. Many opposition members cited
the example of Havel, who was a po
litical prisoner six months before be
coming President. Among the hopeful was Olga Kucherenko, whose cousin
Raman Bandarenka had been killed in
police custody. “We’re going to win,”
she said.
Last month, I spoke to Tsikhanou
skaya again. When I asked if she could
picture herself fighting the Lukashenka
regime five years from now, she recoiled.
“I can’t imagine this,” she said. “That
my children will go five years without
their father—absolutely not.”
Lukashenka seems to have settled
in for the long haul. With the possibil
ity of open protests cut off, Tsikhanou
skaya said that it was impossible to
predict how long he could hold on: “It
could last a long time—many months.”
But she maintained that his adminis
tration was mortally wounded, its le
gitimacy beyond repair. “The regime
has cracked, and the crack is widening.
Processes are going on inside the re
gime that we cannot see.” With the op
position shut out of the homeland, the
decisive blow might come from within.
“The regime is trapped by its own ac
tions—there’s no one left to blame,” she
said. “Someone inside the inner circle
may decide that the time has come.” “My design aesthetic is ostentatious minimalism.”