The Economist - USA (2021-12-18)

44 Britain TheEconomistDecember18th 2021

nelasPangalos,AstraZeneca’sheadofre­

search,saysthefirmhopestotweakthe

recipetoavoidtheissue.

But,headds,thereis“littletono”evi­

denceofsuchadverseeventsoutsidethe

West:“Itmaybedrivenbygenetics,itmay

bedrivenbyoverreporting,whoknows?”

Indeed,AstraZeneca’svaccineisincreas­

ingly used elsewhere. Since production

surgedinSeptember,thecountrieswith

themostdosesareIndia(whichbanned

theexportofvaccinesmadethere),Brazil

andMexico.Covax,whichdistributesjabs

topoorcountries,isanotherbeneficiary.

Thevaccineis“startingtohitplaceslike

Malaysia,Nepal,Vietnam andThailand,

andthere’sa tonofpeopleinthesecoun­

tries”,notesSirJohn.

Thesurgeofdeliveriesinthesecond

halfof 2021 istheflipsideofAstraZeneca’s

strugglesinthefirst.Thefirmworkedwith

partnerstoestablish 25 manufacturingfa­

cilities in 15 countries. Its vaccines are

madeto a formula detailing just about

everythingthatcanbecontrolledina pro­

ductionfacility.Atfirstthefirm’sscientists

weretoooptimisticabouthowquicklyout­

putyieldswouldrise,butrealityhassince

caughtup. India’s SerumInstituteillus­

tratesthescaleofthegrowth.InJanuaryit

madefewerthan60mdoses;byNovember

it hadhit250m.

Onequestioniswhethertherewillbe

anotherinversionin2022,withdemand

failingto meetpotential output.In No­

vemberAstraZenecasaiditwouldstartto

makeaprofitondoses,andhad signed

dealsonthatbasisfor2022,withpriceson

a slidingscaledependingonthewealthof

the purchaser (the vaccine will remain

availableto poorcountries atcost, and

even in richer ones the firm will still

chargelessthanitsrivals).Itstwomain

sellingpointsarecheapnessandthelogis­

ticaladvantagethatdosesdonotneedtobe

kept very cold. AstraZeneca has estab­

lisheda newinternalunitforitsvaccines,

aswellasitspromisingantibodytherapy,

whichwasapprovedbyAmerica’sfdaon

December8th.Thiscanpreventcovidin

peoplewhodonotrespondtovaccines,in­

cludingtheimmune­suppressed.

Forecastingdemandhasbeenmadedif­

ficultbyOmicron,againstwhichtwodoses

ofAstraZenecaappeartoofferscantpro­

tectionfrominfectionandreducedprotec­

tionfromhospitalisation.Ifvaccinesneed

toberetooled,theprocesswilltakea bit

longerthanformrnajabs.Evenif demand

outsidetherichworldremainshigh,an­

alystsdonotexpectthevaccinetocontrib­

utemuchtoAstraZeneca’sbottomline,es­

pecially whencompared withthefirm’s

strengthsinoncologyandcardiovascular

disease.“WhenI thinkaboutthestock,I

don’teventhink aboutthevaccine asa

driver,”saysGarethPowellofPolarCapital,

aninvestorinthefirm.

PascalSoirot,AstraZeneca’s boss, has

alwaysinsistedthedecisiontomakethe

vaccinewasfundamentallyaltruisticrath­

erthancommercial,sayingthathischil­

drenwouldhavekilledhimifhedidnot

take the chance. Given the number of

stormshisfirmhashadtoweather,andthe

attentionthevaccinehasabsorbed,share­

holdersmaynotbeentirelygratefulforthe

gamble.Everyoneelseshouldbe.n

Shot-putters

Sources:Airfinity;WorldBank

2

Covid-19 vaccine deliveries

*ToDec8th †IncludesRomania

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0

2020 2021

Sinovac

AstraZeneca

Pfizer

Sinopharm Moderna

Others

Global, cumulative, bn

Vaccine

Destination countries

By income group/organisation

Pfizer

0.9bndoses

COVAX

High†

Upper

middle

Lower

middle

Low

AstraZeneca

1.bndoses

Sep-Dec 202*

In need of a booster

Share prices, December 15th 2020=100

Source:RefinitivDatastream

1

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

2020 202

MSCI world

pharmaceuticals

Moderna

AstraZeneca Pfizer

Unionismandsocialattitudes

Saving Ulster

S

hortly before taking  command  in

May of the Ulster Unionist Party (uup), a

now­diminished  force  that  once  domin­

ated Northern Ireland, Doug Beattie gave a

memorable speech. “I am a straight man,”

he told the region’s assembly. “There is no

fix or cure for me; there is no therapy that

will  make  me  a  gay  man...Why  would  we

say that a gay man can be fixed or cured?” 

Those  words  from  a  decorated  veteran

of the war in Afghanistan helped convince

Northern  Ireland’s  legislators  to  call  for  a

ban on “gay conversion therapy” similar to

a  bill  under  consultation  in  England.  No

bill has yet been drafted—but the vote was

consequential,  all  the  same.  Its  most  im­

mediate effect was to trigger turmoil in the

Democratic  Unionist  Party  (dup),  which

over  the  past  two  decades  has  supplanted

the  uup as  the  main  voice  of  citizens,

mostly  Protestant,  who  favour  keeping

Northern Ireland in the United Kingdom. 

Arlene Foster, then the dup’s leader and

Northern  Ireland’s  first  minister,  ab­

stained;  few  party  members  followed  her

lead,  instead  voting  against  a  ban.  Within

days  her  political  career  was  over  and  the

dup was embroiled in leadership changes.

Only  in  hindsight  is  the  catalysing  role  of

the conversion­therapy vote clear. 

Faced  with  the  prospect  of  Sinn  Fein,

the  voice  of  militant  Irish  nationalism,

topping  next  year’s  elections  and  taking

the post of first minister, you might think

that  pro­Union  groups  would  make  com­

mon cause. Instead they remain scratchily

divided over matters of culture, identity—

and sexuality. A poll in November suggest­

ed  18%  would  plump  for  the  dup,  against

14% for the uupand 11% for the ultra­con­

servative Traditional Unionist Voice. (Sinn

Fein would get 24%.) 

Despite  being  taunted  as  a  “queer­lov­

er” at public meetings, Mr Beattie has stuck

to his guns. In October the uupreleased a

video with few words but telling images: a

girl playing Gaelic sports, people of differ­

ent races and a same­sex couple. He is also

liberal  on  abortion;  on  December  14th  he

helped vote down a dupbid to restrict late

terminations.  Such  shifting  attitudes  on

social  issues  have  prompted  some  politi­

cians  to  join  the  uup and  others  to  leave.

Harold McKee, a standard­bearer of union­

ism in the Mourne Mountains, quit on Oc­

tober  30th,  lamenting  that  gay  marriage

was counter to the “infallible word of God”.

Mr  Beattie  says  his  live­and­let­live

Parties that support ties with Britain

are gradually modernising