The Economist - USA (2021-12-18)

24 United States The Economist December 18th 2021

Mississippi  and  WestVirginiahaveseen

their  populations  decline. The implica­

tions for funding pensionsandpublicedu­

cation  could  make living in shrinking

states even less attractiveforyoungerpeo­

ple, who will financethosedebts.Growing

states  such  as  TexasandFloridawillhave

an economic advantage.

This  will  also  influencethecountry’s

politics.  Texas,  Florida,Colorado,Monta­

na,  Oregon  and  NorthCarolinahave all

gained population, andthereforecongres­

sional seats, while sevenstates,including

New  York  and  California,havelostseats.

According  to  the  2020Census,theSouth

now  has  ten  of  thecountry’s 15 fastest­

growing cities with apopulationof50,000

or more. About 62% ofAmericansnowlive

in the West and the South,comparedwith

48% in 1970. The shareresidingintheMid­

west and north­east hasfallenfrom52%to

38% over the past 50years.Thiswillaffect

congressional  seats,federalfundingand

electoral­college votes,allofwhichareap­

portioned to states bypopulationsize.

The  movement  ofpeoplewillnotonly

give certain places morenationalpolitical

clout: it will also reconfigurelocalpolitics.

In  the  2020  election, Democrats gained

ground in Arizona andGeorgiainlargepart

because  of  the  young,college­educated,

non­white people movingthere.Theshift­

ing  politics  of  Arizona andGeorgia re­

ceived  attention,  but less noted is that

“growing  suburban places moved quite

dramatically toward theDemocraticParty”,

says  Jonathan  Rodden,a political­science

professor at Stanford.TraditionallyDemo­

crats have been at a disadvantagebecause

so many of their votersareclusteredincit­

ies.  Their  spread  outward into suburbs

could determine theresultofmoreraces.

“The big questionthateveryonewould

like  to  answer  is  whetherthisisa short­

term  reaction  to  someoftheexcessesof

the  Republican  Partybyrelativelyyoung,

educated voters, or ifit isa longer­termre­

alignment  of  the  suburbs,” Mr Rodden

says. A countervailingpoliticalforceisthat

some  of  the  peoplewhoaremovinginto

Texan,  Floridian  and Arizonan suburbs

from California and thenorth­eastconsid­

er  themselves  politicalrefugees, fleeing

badly  run  state  and localgovernments.

They  may  vote  againstDemocraticcandi­

dates to prevent theirnewareasfromturn­

ing into the places theyleft.

America  is  neverstagnant.Towns,cit­

ies  and  suburbs  willbe transformed by

their new inhabitants.Therichness,diver­

sity  and  creativity  ofcitieswillcometo

smaller places, and thecountry’surban­ru­

ral  divide  should  narrow.“Thedispersing

of millennials, minoritiesandimmigrants

means the country willhavemoreincom­

mon than it did before,”predictsMrKotkin

of  Chapman  University. That would be

something to celebrate.n

Kentucky’stornado

The long road back

A

t thefirstBaptistMinistriesCentre

in downtown Mayfield, Kentucky, a

hugecrossusedto bevisible througha

largewindowoverlookingthecrossroads.

Nowitstands,perilously,intheopenair.

Theentirerestofthefrontofthebuilding,

aswellasmuchoftheroof,wastornoffby

a tornadoonthenightofDecember10th,

whichflatteneda largepartoftherestof

thetown.OnDecember14th,thecongrega­

tion were serving coffee and breakfast

bunstopassers­byoutoftheshell.“Ithas

beenanexperience”,saidDebbieFowler,a

68­year­oldparishionerwhosesonisthe

pastor.“Weweresosickathearttoseeit,

it’sdevastating.”But,shesays,thetown

willcomeback.“Itwon’tlookthesame,but

thepeoplewillbethesame.Thisisa close­

knitcommunity”,shesays.

ThetornadothathitMayfieldwasthe

worsttohavehitAmericasinceonede­

stroyedmuchofJoplin,Missouri,in2011.

AswellastearingupMayfield,itwrecked

buildings infive otherstatesacrossthe

MidwestandSouth.ByDecember15th, 88

peoplewereknowntohavebeenkilled, 74

ofwhomwereinKentucky.Dozensmore

werestill missing,whilehundredshave

beenmadehomeless.AndyBeshear,Ken­

tucky’s governor, described it as the

“worst,mostdevastating,mostdeadlytor­

nadoevent”inhisstate’shistory.OnDe­

cember15thJoeBidenvisitedMayfieldto

survey the damage himself, and an­

nouncedfederalaidtocoverthecostsofre­

building. And yet recovery from natural di­

sasters  is  rarely  easy.  The  population  of

New Orleans is still 20% lower today than

it  was  before  Hurricane  Katrina  in  2005.

Many  smaller  towns  like  Mayfield  have

struggled  to  retain  population  even  with­

out tornadoes. Will it really bounce back?

When your correspondent arrived, vol­

unteers  from  all  over  Kentucky,  and  even

further afield, had set up stalls to hand out

food,  water  and  other  essentials.  Fire  de­

partments  were  busy  clearing  the  roads.

Generators  had  been  hauled  in  to  provide

power.  “The  town  is  not  going  to  quit  be­

cause of this,” says John Darnell, who drove

in from his home in a neighbouring county

to drop off supplies. “They’re too resource­

ful.”  And  yet  volunteers  rushing  in  is  not

the main determinant of how easily some­

where recovers. Sam Anselm, who was as­

sistant city manager in Joplin when it was

hit, says the town got a lot of donations of

clothes  and  toys,  and  then  had  to  find

space to store them. “Really what we need­

ed was a gift card or cheque”, he says.

What  matters  more  is  having  a  good

plan, says Elaina Sutley, who studies disas­

ter recovery at the University of Kansas. A

well­organised local government can mar­

shall  an  enormous  amount  of  federal  and

state resources. But smaller towns often do

not  have  the  ready  expertise  to  work  out

which  grants  to  apply  for,  or  what  to  do

with  them.  Political  conflict  can  stifle  the

ability to use money well. “There is a win­

dow of opportunity that does not last very

long after each disaster,” she says.

Sadly, as in so many things, a town’s ex­

isting wealth is an important factor. Where

most  residents  affected  are  homeowners

and  decently  insured,  they  can  often  re­

cover  quickly,  by  enlisting  private  sector

resources  to  rebuild  their  homes.  Poorer

places, with lots of renters, are more likely

to  suffer  permanently,  as  people  whose

homes are damaged leave. What you some­

times  see,  says  Ms  Sutley,  is  that  “some

pieces  of  the  town  look  really  great,  and

other  parts  get  left  behind.”  Joplin  has

largely  recovered,  partly  thanks  to  decent

leadership,  but  also  because  its  housing

stock was well­insured.

Whether Mayfield will thrive is yet to be

seen.  The  median  household  income  in

the town is just $32,200, much lower than

the national figure of $67,500. Poverty will

prove  a  challenge.  At  a  community  centre

shelter  in  Wingo,  a  town  around  10  miles

away, one evacuee, Evonda Murdock, says

this is the second time she has been forced

to move recently. A few months before, her

landlord had evicted her and her son, forc­

ing  them  to  live  in  a  hotel.  “I  don’t  know

what  we  are  going  to  do  now”,  she  says.

America has an enormous amount of com­

passion  when  catastrophe  arrives.  But

more  day­to­daysupport  for  the  vulner­

able would help too. n

MAYFIELD, KENTUCKY

Recovering from natural disasters is

easier if you’re already strong

Cover and recover