The Economist - USA (2021-12-18)

The Economist December 18th 2021 China 33

A

s china ages, worriesaremounting

aboutthementalhealthofitselderly

population.Globally,suiciderates

amongoldpeopletendtobehigherthan

average.InChinathisisespeciallytrue.

Peoplethereaged 70 andabovekillthem­

selvesatmorethanfourtimestherateof

thegeneralpopulation,comparedwith

arounda quartermoreinAmerica.Lone­

linessandinadequatehealthcareare

amongthemainreasons.

Itisnotallbadnews.Inthe1990s

China’ssuicideratewasamongthehigh­

estintheworld.Fatalself­harmwas

strikinglycommonamongyoungwom­

eninthecountryside,whohadeasy

accesstolethalpesticides.Butinthepast

20 years,China’sratehasdeclinedmore

thanothercountry’s,mainlyasa result

ofstrictercontrolsonthosechemicals

andmigrationtocities,wheresuch

poisonsareevenhardertoobtain.In

2019 it wasnineper100,000,compared

with 14 inAmericaand 19 inJapan.

Amongpeopleaged 70 orover,the

suicideratehasalsodroppedsince1990,

from 78 per100,000to35.Butasa pro­

portionofallsuicides,thosebyelderly

peoplehaverisenfrom14%to31%.In

part,thatisbecausetheelderly’sshareof

thepopulationhasrisen,too,from3.4%

in 1990 to6.8%today.Butbetween 1990

and 2017 suicideratesamongtheoldfell

theleastofanyagegroup.

Povertyanda lackofsocialservices

exacerbatetheproblem,asdoesinternal

migration:youngerpeopleoftenleave

olderfamilymembersbehindinthe

countryside.Becauseoffallingbirth

rates,elderlypeoplehavefeweryoung­

sterstolookafterthem.Researchpub­

lishedinMarchbya groupofacademics

inAmericaandChina,includingHan­

mingFangoftheUniversityofPenn­

sylvania,usesanunusuallygranularset

ofdatafromtheChineseCentrefor

DiseaseControlandPreventiontodem­

onstratetheimpactofloneliness.It

showsthattheweeklysuiciderate

amongtheelderly—thoseover65,inthis

case—decreasesbymorethanone­tenth

duringtheChineseNewYearholiday,

whenfamiliesreunite(seechart).The

holidaydoesnotappeartoaffectsuicides

amongyoungerpeople.

Thesituationmaygetworse.Atleast

halfoftheelderlyareempty­nesters,

statemediasay.Theirnumbersaresurg­

ing.In 2013 Chinapasseda lawrequiring

thosewholiveapartfromelderlyparents

to“frequentlyvisitorsendgreetings”.It

has,ofcourse,proveddifficulttoen­

force.OnNovember24ththegovern­

mentpublishedguidelinesoncarefor

theelderly,includingadvicethatyoung

adultsshouldlivewith,orcloseto,their

parents.Manyonlinecommentswere

derisory.Howaboutscrappinghouse­

hold­registrationrulesthatrestrict

migrants’accesstowelfareinthecities,

someasked?Onlythenmightageing

parentsleavethevillagesandjointheir

urbanoffspring.

Elderlysuicide

Old and sad

Suicidesbyruralwomenhavedeclined.Nowtheelderlyarethebiggestconcern

The solace of company

China, change in suicide rate among over- 65s

2013-17, %

Source:“Familycompanionshipandelderlysuicide: evidence

fromtheChineseLunarNewYear”,byH.Fang,Z. Lei, L. Lin

andP. Zhang,NBERworkingpaper,March 2021

432101234

Weeksbefore/afterChinese New Year

10

5

0

-5

-10

-15

-20

Central estimate

5% confidence

interval

and eastern Europe, calling it divisive. 
There  was  some  grumbling  among  eu
politicians  and  officials  when  Lithuania
first announced the opening of a “Taiwan­
ese  Representative  Office”  in  Vilnius.  Did
Lithuania  really  have  to  approve  that  par­
ticular name, fellow Europeans muttered?
After all, China tolerates overseas trade of­
fices that are named after Taiwan’s capital,
Taipei. The mood now is different. China’s
eagerness to use undeclared forms of eco­
nomic and diplomatic coercion is breaking
new ground. In contrast with the cold war
against  the  Soviet  Union,  the  concern  is
not that China is bent on exporting revolu­
tion or overthrowing global capitalism. In­
stead,  China  is  seen  as  a  disrupter  of  the
rules­based  order:  willing  to  use  instru­
ments of commerce and diplomatic inter­
course  as  weapons,  even  as  Chinese  lead­
ers talk up multilateralism and free trade.
China’s  treatment  of  Lithuania  follows  a
pattern  seen  in  other  recent  rows  with
American allies. Among them are Australia
and  Canada,  which  have  suffered  unac­
knowledged  trade  boycotts  and  seen  citi­
zens  imprisoned  as  hostages  in  bilateral
disputes. Before that, it was the turn of Ja­
pan  and  South  Korea  to  face  undeclared
economic sanctions for displeasing China.
For  some  weeks,  importers  have  been
unable to list Lithuania as a country of ori­
gin in Chinese customs databases, making
it impossible to clear shipments (Lithuania
does not export much to China, however).
German  and  French  firms  have  been
warned that they may not ship goods with
Lithuanian  components  to  China,  poten­
tially  blocking  hundreds  of  containers  al­
ready in transit. There are rumours that the
People’s  Bank  of  China,  the  central  bank,
has forbidden banks from issuing letters of
credit  covering  trade  in  or  out  of  any  port
in  the  Baltic  states.  When  eu officials
raised these concerns, Chinese authorities
retorted that Lithuania is lying and that the
eushould  beware  of  being  taken  hostage
by a tiny troublemaker.
In its desire to punish Lithuania, China
is betting that bigger eupowers will think
of  China’s  market  and  abandon  the  Baltic
minnow. In doing so, China overlooks the
extent  to  which  small  or  mid­ranking
European  countries  have  a  horror  of  a
world in which great powers set their own
rules. Europeans loathed Mr Trump for his
America­first  trade  policies.  They  detest
China­first bullying just as much, especial­
ly  when  it  threatens  the  integrity  of  the
European single market.

First they came for Lithuania
In eucouncils even Hungary, which is nor­
mally friendly to China, is speaking up for
Lithuania.  On  November  30th  France’s
president, Emmanuel Macron, told Lithua­
nia’s,  Gitanas  Nauseda,  that  France  sees
engagement  with  major  powers  as  a  vital

interest—but puts a higher priority still on

eusolidarity. On December 8th two senior

euofficials warned that the apparent trade

ban, if confirmed, may put China in breach

of  its  World  Trade  Organisation  obliga­

tions.  Soon  afterwards  the  eu unveiled

new  instruments  to  retaliate  against  eco­

nomic  coercion  by  third  countries.  Free­

traders within the bloc doubt whether such

tools can work. But the same governments

are also troubled by China’s behaviour.

When the new German chancellor, Olaf

Scholz,  has  his  first  bilateral  call  with  Xi

Jinping,  China’s  president,  Lithuania  will

surely  be  on  the  agenda.  All  in  all,  2021

ends  with  Europe­China  relations  in  dire

shape. Pessimistic envoys in Beijing worry

that Chinese leaders do not care. They fear

that the regime is intoxicated by national­

ism. They also detect a conviction that it is

the  destiny  of  a  rising  China  to  struggle

with  a  fading  America.  Solidarity  with

Lithuania  may  prove  fleeting;  Europeans

may  start  accommodating  Chinaonother

issues. But the chasing of an embassyfrom

Beijing will not be quickly forgotten.n