Ralph Vince - Portfolio Mathematics

(Brent) #1

330 THE HANDBOOK OF PORTFOLIO MATHEMATICS


where: T=The expected number of holding periods
to reach a specific goal.
goal=The goal in terms of a multiple on our starting
stake, a TWR.
FRAC=The initial active equity percentage.
geometric mean=the raw geometric mean HPR at the
optimalf; there is no adjustment performed
on it as there is in Equation (5.07b)
ln( )=The natural logarithm function.

Thus, to illustrate the use of Equation (5.07c), suppose we want to
determine how long it will take an account to double (i.e., TWR=2) at .1
active equity and a geometric mean of 1.01933:


T=


ln

((


(goal−1)
FRAC

)


+ 1


)


ln(geometric mean)

=


ln

((


(2−1)

. 1


)


+ 1


)


ln(1.01933)

=


ln

(


(1)

. 1 +^1


)


ln(1.01933)

=

ln( 10 + 1 )
ln(1.01933)

=

ln(11)
ln(1.01933)

=

2. 397895273


. 01914554872


= 125. 2455758


Thus, if our geometric means are determined off scenarios which have
a daily holding period basis, we can expect about 125^1 / 4 days to double.
If our scenarios used months as holding period lengths, we would have to
expect about 125^1 / 4 months to double.
As long as you are dealing with aTlarge enough that Equation (5.07c)
is greater than Equation (5.07b), then you are benefiting from dynamic frac-
tionalftrading. This can, likewise, be expressed as Equation (10.05):


FGHPRT<=geometric meanT ∗FRAC+ 1 −FRAC (10.05)

Thus, you must iterate to that value ofTwhere the right side of the
equation exceeds the left side—that is, the value forT(the number of holding

Free download pdf