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Decisions under uncertainty / Decision criteriaƒ 44

Expected value criterion

ƒ

St. Petersburg Paradox

(Daniel

Bernoulli

, 1738): Consider the

following game. A fair coin will be tossed repeat

edly until heads comes up. If this

happens in the i-th toss, the lottery yields a money prize of 2

iEuros.

The probability of this outcome is 1/2

i.

How much will an expected valu

e maximizer be willing to pay to

play this game?

.
Since one would not suppose, at le

ast intuitively, that real-world

people would be willing to pay an

infinite amount of money to play

this game, the expected value criterion seems to be not appropriate to determine the price to play this game!

Single-period random cash


flows: Utility theory

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