American Politics Today - Essentials (3rd Ed)

174 CHAPTER 6|POLITICAL PARTIES

to 100 percent, and the diff erence represents the percentage of independent voters

who do not identify with either party. Just like the percentages of Republican and

Democratic identifi ers, the percentage of independents fl uctuates over time.

Looking more closely at vote decisions, Figure 6.3 shows how Democrats,

Republicans, and independents voted in the 2012 presidential election. Almost

all Democrats voted for Barack Obama, the Democratic nominee; and almost all

Republicans voted for Mitt Romney, the Republican nominee. Independent voters

slightly favored Romney, but Obama won because Democrats are the largest group

in the electorate. Simply put, if you are trying to predict how someone will vote,

the most important thing to know is his or her party identifi cation.^25 Party ID also

infl uences other kinds of political behavior; for example, people whose identifi ca-

tion is strong are more likely to work for the party or to make a contribution com-

pared to people with weak party identifi cation.^26

PARTY COALITIONS

Data on party ID enable scholars to identify the party coalitions, or groups

of citizens who identify with each party. Table 6.2 shows the contemporary

Democratic and Republican party coalitions. As you can see, some groups are dis-

proportionately likely to identify as Democrats (African Americans), some are

disproportionately likely to be Republicans (white evangelicals), and other groups

have no clear favorite party (people with some college education).

party coalitions The groups that
identify with a political party, usually
described in demographic terms
such as African American Demo-
crats or evangelical Republicans.

Source: Pew Research Center, “GOP Makes Big Gains among White Voters,” July 22, 2011, http://www.people-press

.org/2011/07/22/gop-makes-big-gains-among-white-voters/ (accessed 9/17/12).

PARTY IDENTIFICATION TRENDS AMONG AMERICAN VOTERS

In terms of party identifi cation, the parties have moved from rough parity in the 1930s

and 1940s, to a period of Democratic advantage that lasted from the 1950s to the 1980s.

Beginning in 2003, Democrats appeared to be opening up another advantage, although

this change has eroded in recent years. What events might have caused these changes

in party identifi cation?

FIGURE » 6.2

20

30

1937194219471952195719621967197219771982198719921997200220072012

40

50

55%

Republican Democratic