202 CHAPTER 7|ELECTIONS
Pa r t y com m it t ees a nd ca nd id at es h ave pa r t icu l a r i nt eres t i n t he l i kel i hood t h at
incumbents might retire, thereby creating an open seat. Open seats are of special
interest because incumbents generally hold an election advantage.^13 So, when a
seat opens, candidates from the party that does not control the seat know that they
might have a better chance to win because they will not have to run against an
incumbent.
Presidential campaigns work the same way. Virtually all fi rst-term presi-
dents run for re-election. So potential challengers in the opposing party study the
results of the last election to see how many votes the president received and how
this support was distributed across the states, in order to determine their own
chances of winning against the president. Candidates in the president’s party
make the same calculations, although no sitting president in the twentieth cen-
tury was denied renomination. Some presidents (Harry Truman in 1952, Lyndon
Johnson in 1968) retired because their chances of being renominated were not
good, while others (Gerald Ford in 1976, Jimmy Carter in 1980) faced tough pri-
mary contests.^14Before the Campaign
Most incumbent House members, senators, and presidents work throughout the
election cycle to secure their re-election. Political scientists label this activity
the permanent campaign:^15 it involves keeping the constituents happy and
raising money for the campaign. As we see in Chapter 9, congressional incum-
bents try to keep their constituents happy by taking actions that ensure the
voters can identify something good that the incumbent has done.^16 Incumbent
presidents make the same calculations. During Barack Obama’s fi rst months
in offi ce, many of his advisers argued that he had to off er an economic stimu-
lus plan in light of polls showing that the economy was an overriding concern to
most Americans. Obama did so—a decision driven by political as well as policy
concerns. Of course, many presidential actions are taken in response to events
rather than initiated to gain voter support. Particularly in the case of wars and
other confl icts, it is far-fetched to say that presidents initiate hostilities for
political gain. Even so, presidents, just like other politicians, are keenly aware of
the political consequences of their actions and the need to build a record they
can run on in the next election.
Candidates for all offi ces, incumbents and challengers alike, also devote
considerable time before the campaign to raising campaign funds. Fund-rais-
ing helps an incumbent in two ways.^17 First, it ensures that if the incumbent
faces a strong opponent, she or he will have enough money to run an aggres-
sive campaign. Second, successful fund-raising deters opposition. Potential
challengers are less likely to run against an incumbent if that individual is well
funded with a sizable campaign war chest.^18
Another thing candidates do before the campaign is build their campaign
organization.^19 The success or failure of these eff orts is another signal of a can-
didate’s prospects. If experienced, well-respected people work in a candidate’s
campaign, observers conclude that the candidate’s prospects for being elected
are probably good. Indeed, skilled campaign consultants are highly desirable.
They plan strategies, run public opinion polls, assemble ads and buy television
time, and talk with members of the media on the candidate’s behalf, amongpermanent campaign The
actions offi ceholders take through-
out the election cycle to build sup-
port for their re-election.
open seat An elected position for
which there is no incumbent.
MOST OFFICE HOLDERS ARE ALWAYS
campaigning—traveling around
their states or districts, talking
with constituents, and explaining
their actions in offi ce—all in the
hope of winning and keeping
support for the next election.
Here, Republican representative
Sam Graves greets constituents
during a 2008 parade in Kearney,
Missouri.