The Observer (2022-01-09)

The Observer

09.01.22 World

Troops in
Almaty’s main
square; the
president had
ordered security
forces to ‘shoot
to kill’. Mariya
Gordeyeva/
Reuters

Death rolled in with the mist to the

streets of Almaty. What comes next?

Order is now restored

in Kazakhstan but the

turmoil of last week

has exposed hidden

political tensions,

reports Shaun Walker

that there may be more in play than

a straightforward popular upris-

ing, and this was reinforced by the

announcement yesterday that Karim

Masimov, a powerful former security

chief and prime minister, had been

arrested on suspicion of treason.

The move only increased specu-

lation that the initial protests could

have been used by groups within

the country’s political elite to fi ght

their own battles. A source in Kazakh

business circles gave credence to this

scenario, describing a situation over

recent months of increasing tension

between fi gures close to Nazar bayev

and his successor, Tokayev.

“In the last six to 12 months there

was increased squabbling, which was

paralysing decision-making,” said

the source. “It has been bubbling for

some time.”

One of the more surprising epi-

sodes of the week was Tokayev’s

transformation from placid place-

holder to furious autocrat, promis-

ing to crush the revolt brutally.

“We were dealing with armed and

well-prepared bandits, both local and

foreign. Bandits and terrorists, who

should be destroyed. This will hap-

pen in the nearest time,” Tokayev said

in an uncompromising address to the

nation on Friday , noting that there

brated the 30th anniversary of its

independence, with offi cial speeches

highlighting the image of a peace-

ful, prosperous nation, one that had

largely avoided political unrest and

boasted an independent and “multi-

vector” foreign policy.

Kazakhstan, it seemed, had even

successfully managed the tricky

transition out of power from its

long-standing president, Nursultan

Nazarbayev , who led the country from

independence in 1991 until 2019, to

his handpicked successor, Kassym-

Jomart Tokayev.

A month later, and the picture is

very different. Peaceful protests

turned into violent clashes, Tokayev

announced he had ordered secu-

rity forces to “shoot to kill, without

warning”, and troops from a Russia-

led military alliance are on the ground

after being called for by Tokayev.

Amid it all, dozens of deaths and a

sense from eyewitness reports that

the real number of casualties could

be much higher than the 26 “armed

criminals” and 18 security offi cers

that the interior ministry has said

were killed. More than 4,000 people

have been detained.

There was a suspicion all week

For many Kazakhs, the full story

behind the unrest of the past week

remains as murky as the mist that

enveloped Almaty , the country’s larg-

est city and the centre of violence, at

the same time.

People were unable to access

accurate information, as an inter-

net blackout froze almost all access

to the outside world during a tragic

few days of violence in which military

vehicles rolled through the streets,

government buildings burned and

state television carried rolling threats

that “bandits and terrorists” would be

eliminated without mercy.

Now both order and the internet

have been largely restored, but there

are still more questions than answers.

One thing that is clear is many of the

old assumptions about Kazakhstan,

the resource-rich Central Asian state,

have been overturned.

Just last month the country cele- 1,000 miles

1,000 km

Moscow

China

Iran

Russia

Kazakhstan

Nur-Sultan

Almaty