Fish as feed inputs for aquaculture: practices, sustainability and implications

8 Fish as feed inputs for aquaculture – Practices, sustainability and implications

2.2 Future outlook

2.2.1 Global population growth

In 2000, the United Nations (UN) estimated that the world’s population was then

growing at the rate of 1.14 percent (or about 75 million people) per year. Globally,

the population growth rate has been steadily declining from its peak of 2.19 percent

in 1963, but growth remains high in the Middle East and sub-Saharan Africa. In some

countries, there is negative population growth (i.e. net decrease in population over

time), especially in Central and Eastern Europe (mainly due to low fertility rates) and

southern Africa (due to the high number of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)

related deaths). Currently at 6.6 billion people, the total global population is expected

to rise to nearly 9 billion people by 2050; Asia’s population of around 60 percent of the

world’s population is unlikely to change, while Africa’s population is likely to increase

by 5 percent to over 20 percent of the world’s population, mainly at the expense of

Europe (Table 1).

Within the next decade, Japan and some countries in western Europe are also

expected to encounter negative population growth due to sub-replacement fertility

rates. Over the last ten years, the UN had consistently revised these projections

downward, until the 2006 revision issued March 14, 2007, revised the 2050 mid-range

estimate upwards by 273 million people.

2.2.2 Per capita food consumption

Global consumption of fish as food has doubled since 1973, and the developing

world has been responsible for over 90 percent of this growth. The Food and

Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) reports that while growth

of fish consumption as food in the relatively richer countries has tapered off, food-

fish consumption in the poorer countries has grown rapidly (Ye, 1999). In particular,

the consumption of freshwater fish has grown massively in recent decades, primarily

in East Asia. Large increases have also occurred in the consumption of crustaceans

and non-cephalopod molluscs such as oysters and clams. In both cases, this growth

in consumption has been matched by an equally rapid growth in production from

aquaculture, primarily but not exclusively within Asia (Delgado et al., 2003).

It has been shown that animal product consumption grows fastest in countries with

rapid population growth, rapid income growth and urbanization, which is reflected

TABLE 1
Global population forecasts
Year World Africa Asia Europe Latin America North America Oceania
2010 6 830 283 000 (100%)^984 225 000 (14.4%) 4 148 948 000 (60.7%) 719 714 000 (10.5%) 594 436 000 (8.7%) 348 139 000 (5.1%) 34 821 000 (0.5%)

2015 7 197 247 000 (100%)^1 084 540 000 (15.1%) 4 370 522 000 (60.7%) 713 402 000 (9.9%) 628 260 000 (8.7%) 363 953 000 (5.1%) 36 569 000 (0.5%)

2020 7 540 237 000 (100%)^1 187 584 000 (15.7%) 4 570 131 000 (60.6%) 705 410 000 (9.4%) 659 248 000 (8.7%) 379 589 000 (5.0%) 38 275 000 (0.5%)

2025 7 851 455 000 (100%)^1 292 085 000 (16.5%) 4 742 232 000 (60.4%) 696 036 000 (8.9%) 686 857 000 (8.7%) 394 312 000 (5.0%) 39 933 000 (0.5%)

2030 8 130 149 000 (100%)^1 398 004 000 (17.2%) 4 886 647 000 (60.1%) 685 440 000 (8.4%) 711 058 000 (8.7%) 407 532 000 (5.0%) 41 468 000 (0.5%)

2035 8 378 184 000 (100%)^1 504 179 000 (18.0%) 5 006 700 000 (59.8%) 673 638 000 (8.0%) 731 591 000 (8.7%) 419 273 000 (5.0%) 42 803 000 (0.5%)

2040 8 593 591 000 (100%)^1 608 329 000 (18.7%) 5 103 021 000 (59.4%) 660 645 000 (8.0%) 747 953 000 (8.7%) 429 706 000 (5.0%) 43 938 000 (0.5%)

2045 8 774 394 000 (100%)^1 708 407 000 (19.5%) 5 175 311 000 (59.0%) 646 630 000 (7.4%) 759 955 000 (8.7%) 439 163 000 (5.0%) 44 929 000 (0.5%)

2050 8 918 724 000 (100%)^1 803 298 000 (20.2%) 5 217 202 000 (58.5%) 653 323 000 (7.3%) 767 685 000 (8.6%) 447 931 000 (5.0%) 45 815 000 (0.5%)

Source: The 2004 Revision Population Database (http://esa.un.org/unpp/)