Status and trends on the use of small pelagic fish species in Peru 367
- With regard to demand, it is expected that growth will be more limited than that
of the last two decades. By 2015, 50 million tonnes of fish and additional products
will be required. - Human consumption will increase due to population growth, as well as increased
incomes. - Fishmeal demand will show a net annual increase of 1.1 percent until 2010 and a
0.5 percent annual increase from 2010 to 2015. - It is anticipated that there will be reduced demand in developed countries, while
demand will increase in developing countries. Also, the amount of pelagic and
demersal fish will decrease and that of freshwater fish will increase. - The difference between supply and high demand will result in an increase in
prices. In conclusion, this study foresees a supply deficit.
Similarly in 2002, it was considered that by 2010, 50 percent of fishmeal production
and 75 percent of fish oil production would be used by aquaculture. In all the scenarios,
the price of fishmeal and oil will increase. This will increase even further if catches from
capture fisheries do not increase and the demands of the aquaculture sector increase
above projected rates.
- 4 Anchoveta and its contribution to world food supply
Annual global fish production during the decade 1996–2005 fluctuated between 118 and
142 million tonnes (capture fisheries, 88–95 million tonnes and aquaculture (excluding
aquatic plants), 27–48 million tonnes), of which 21–27 percent was used for non-food
purposes and the remaining 73–79 percent was consumed mainly as fresh, frozen and
canned products. Over the last ten years, annual per capita foodfish supply remained
more or less static, ranging between 15.3 and 16.6 kg (FAO, 2003, 2005, 2007).
Calculations made on future fish requirements to 2015 estimate a world demand of
between 100 and 120 million tonnes. The difference between existing supply and future
demand will have to be covered by aquaculture and the use of underutilized resources
that can be adapted for direct human consumption.
Globally, of the four most important pelagic species used in reduction processes for
fishmeal, the anchoveta could find acceptance in those parts of the world that consume
a great variety of pelagic fish and that have established markets for similar species.
Nevertheless, an important condition for acceptance would be that the anchoveta
products should be low priced within the framework of regional and worldwide
policies that include commercial development and the elimination of barriers related
mainly to tariff rates.
Prices of fish for human consumption are expected to increase during 2005 20015
because current supplies will not meet the projected demand. Any significant increase in
the acceptance of small pelagics for human consumption in countries with nutritionally
deficient populations or low fish consumption might possibly be offset by a decrease
in buying power as the forecast is for slight economic development. Consumption of
small pelagic fish such as anchoveta could be promoted in developed countries based
on knowledge of the physiological benefits derived from the consumption of this type
of fish. In addition, if the price of demersal fish increases considerably due to limited
supplies, consumers of white fish may change to cheaper alternatives, as is presently
the case.
With the development of appropriate technologies for the conversion of the
anchoveta and other small pelagics to processed foods, the challenge to fight hunger
and malnutrition of millions of people worldwide can be met. Considering that most
of the world’s fish stocks are fully exploited or overexploited, any increase in the
fish supply will have to come from increased aquaculture production and the more
rational use of capture fisheries resources. This means that a part of the landings of