ȂȈȁ Partʺʺ: Politics and Philosophyparty-and-prime-minister system. Would it have developed in a similar
way under a Stuart succession?
Here we are speculating about the latent potential of people and move-
ments that we can identify. But what about the multitude of what-if cases
that never had a chance to come to our attention? Were it not for the
accident of dying early, how many men and women would have survived
to change the course of cultural and political history? Ļis is a theme of
Gray’s “Elegy Written in a Country Churchyard”:
Perhaps in this neglected spot is laid
Some heart once pregnant with celestial fire,
Hands that the rod of empire might have swayed,
Or waked to ecstasy the living lyre.Here, perhaps, speculation ceases with our lack of knowledge. But
events that are too certain are not fruitful subjects of speculation, either.
Historical struggles make poor examples of uchronia when the advantage
was decisively on one side. Ļey become more interesting when the details
could easily have gone the other way. “My kingdom for a horse!” cries
Shakespeare’s RichardIIIat Bosworth Field. To me, even more interest-
ing than battles that might have gone either way are wars that might have
gone either way—in the sense that they might have been avoided.
If American war hawks had not misrepresented the explosion of the
Maine in Havana harbor inȀȇȈȇ, Spain might well have remained a sub-
stantial power; and the United States might have avoided its deeper colo-
nial and geopolitical burdens. Suppose that hotheads had been less influen-
tial in Charleston in AprilȀȇȅȀor that Jefferson Davis had restrained them.
Ļe Confederates could have been more patient, not falling for Lincoln’s
provocative move to resupply Fort Sumter. Without their firing on the
fort, Lincoln could not have whipped up war fever in the North. How
would a few more months or even years of a Union garrison in Charleston
harbor have impaired Confederate independence, thus far succeeding?
After all, the garrison had been allowed to buy supplies in Charleston even
after secession. Neither side expected four years of tragic bloodshed. Ļe
issue of slavery might have been resolved at much less cost for either side.
France inȀȇȆǿis an example of not taking “yes” (compliance) for an
answer. Ļe Spanish provisional government had invited a Hohenzollern
prince to become the country’s new king. Ļe government of the French
Emperor, NapoleonIII , objected; and the German prince, a member
of the house then ruling Prussia, withdrew. Events could easily have