New Scientist - USA (2022-01-22)

16 | New Scientist | 22 January 2022

News

Analysis SS Richard Montgomery

THREE masts sticking up above

the waves near the coastal town

of Sheerness, UK, mark the spot

where a wreck has been rusting

for almost 80 years. They belong

to the SS Richard Montgomery,

a US second world war-era ship

that ran aground in 1944 with

a cargo of bombs. The wreck, just

2 kilometres from land, still has

1400 tonnes of TNT in its holds.

Almost 20 years after I

mounted an investigation for New

Scientist into the dangers posed by

this wreck, the UK government has

announced plans to cut back the

steel masts this year to reduce their

weight. This is to prevent them

collapsing into the holds, where

they would set off an explosion.

A spokesperson for the

Department for Transport says

the wreck “is in a relatively stable

condition” and added that

“expert wreck assessors are now

undertaking detailed surveys”.

When I began our investigation

in 2004, I wanted to find out the

dangers posed by this wreck. What

were the chances of an explosion?

And how serious would it be?

A large part of the cargo was

removed in 1944. But work

stopped after the Admiralty –

the UK government department

responsible at the time – refused

to pay workers danger money for

unloading the bombs. This was

the best chance the government

would ever have to make the ship

safe. Sixty years later, the wreck

was disintegrating and the

explosives were unstable.

Our investigation revealed

that the government’s Explosives

Research and Development

Establishment (ERDE) had

calculated in 1972 that the blast

from an explosion at the wreck

would shatter virtually every

window in Sheerness and send a

300-metre-wide column of mud,

metal and munitions shooting

up almost 3 kilometres into the

air. As part of the investigation,

New Scientist asked researchers

at Defence Research and

Development Canada to check

these alarming calculations and

they confirmed the results.

A blast on this scale would

be one of the world’s biggest

non-nuclear explosions, causing

widespread destruction and death.

The proximity of a giant liquefied

natural gas terminal at the Isle

of Grain is an additional worry.

Supertankers on their way to

the terminal pass as close as

200 metres to the wreck.

So how likely is an explosion?

Unexploded bombs are always

dangerous and unpredictable,

which is why they are normally

made safe as soon as they are

found. A particular problem with

the SS Richard Montgomery is

that many of the smaller bombs

were fused, ready for use; bombs

would normally be transported

without fuses for safety.

“Some of these fused bombs

may, in all probability, go through

a period of enhanced sensitivity,”

said the ERDE in 1972. In 1999,

the UK government asked

consultants to carry out a risk

assessment. They concluded

that “some [bombs] may not

have passed their most sensitive

phase, and have a higher risk

of premature detonation”. The

consultants said the wreck would

start to collapse in 10 to 20 years

and the explosion of one bomb

could start a chain reaction. Doing

nothing was no longer an option,

they said. In 2001, senior officials

met to discuss this report and

agreed the time for procrastination

was over. That was 21 years ago.

This week, I spoke to David

Alexander at the Institute for

Risk and Disaster Reduction at

University College London, who

has taken a keen interest in the

wreck. He says the bombs need

to be removed. “Sooner or later

they have to do something,” says

Alexander. “The question is will

they do it too late.” ❚

JAMES BELL/ALAMY

The exposed masts

of the SS Richard

Montgomery

‘Doomsday’ shipwreck to be made safer Almost 20 years

after a New Scientist investigation exposed the risk, the UK

government is finally acting, reports Mick Hamer

“A blast on this scale
would be one of the
world’s biggest non-
nuclear explosions”

Health

Michael Le Page

IT HAS long been suspected that

the common Epstein-Barr virus

can trigger multiple sclerosis (MS).

Now, a study of 10 million military

personnel in the US has shown

that virtually every case of MS is

preceded by infection with the virus.

The finding suggests that a

vaccine against the virus could

reduce the incidence of MS. “This is

really a turning point,” says Alberto

Ascherio at Harvard University.

The Epstein-Barr virus is a

kind of herpes virus that spreads

mainly via saliva, for instance by

kissing. Initial infections may

cause few, if any, symptoms, but

once the virus gets into immune

cells called B cells, it lurks in them

permanently.

The difficulty with showing

that the Epstein-Barr virus is the

main cause of MS is that almost

everyone is infected with it. This

means huge numbers of people

must be monitored to see whether

people who haven’t been infected

with the virus are less likely to

develop MS.

Ascherio and his colleagues

turned to blood samples from

the US military. Out of 10 million

personnel, 955 developed MS.

Yet they found that only one of

those who developed MS tested

negative for antibodies against

the Epstein-Barr virus (Science,

doi.org/gn4sv3).

“Ultimately, we can’t be certain

that Epstein-Barr virus is causing

multiple sclerosis until we can see

what impact preventing Epstein-

Barr infection has on multiple

sclerosis incidence,” says Clare

Walton at the UK’s MS Society. ❚

Virus’s link to MS

is stronger than

we thought

UNCREDITED/AP/SHUTTERSTOCK

Illustration

of the outer

coat of the

Epstein-Barr

virus