Contemporary Conflict Analysis
in Perspective
Jofio Gornes Porto
Introduction
"...at what point does the proliferation of 'hunches' add confusion or
avoid critical issues in the field? Does yet another study that finds some
statistically significant relationship between ecological (i.e. attribute
and relational) variables and the incidence or some other characteristic
of war help develop theory? For the most part, the causes of war ...
remain as obscure as ever. Modern research has left a trail of uncer-
tainty, partial clues, contradiction, and continued mystery ..."I"...there is no single cause of a conflict. Nor is there often any single
precondition for sustainable peace. Different factors vary in importance,
and reinforce or neutralise each other. The analysis of the situation
must therefore include assessing the relative importance of the differ-
ent indicators and their inter-relationship."'In an essay titled 'The theoretical deficit in the study of war'. Thomas Cusak
reminds us that although "war remains a major social problem", it is reas-
suring to know that "in the last few decades a significant number of political
and other social scientists have devoted considerable effort to the study of its
causes and consequence^':^ Nonetheless, far from being unified, the study of
armed conflict and war remains fragmented between disciplinary boundaries.
which produce conflicting and often mutually exclusive theories. Most impor-
tantly, there is a disturbing lack of integrative knowledge on the subject.l It
is in this context that Kalevi Holsti's comment quoted above must be put into
perspective.1n fact, what Holsti is rebelling against is what has commonly
been referred to as the 'lyranny of the single-cause' in the explanation of war.
This book represents a commendable exception to the 'tyranny of the sin-
gle-cause'. In fact, the authors of the six chapters do not claim to have discov-
ered "the philosopher's stone, the magic formula, which, mechanically
applied, will produce the desired result and thus substitute for the uncertain-
ties and risks of political action the certitude of rational calc~lation".~ On
the contrary, backed by extensive primary data collected in situ, each chapter