Contemporary Conflict Analysis in Perspective 5Kaldor. 'Low-intensity conflicts', 'wars of the third kind' and 'new wars' were
the concepts put forward by the three authors to describe the prevailing form
of armed conflict in the second half of the 20rh century.17 On the ground, the
visible signs of the structural transformation of war are evident from the way
it is conducted. A far cry from the structured conduct of conventional war,
contemporary wars do not typically have a precise beginning, since in the
vast majority of cases there are no formal declarations of war that would indi-
cate the initiation of hostilities. In addition, contemporary armed conflicts
conspicuously lack definitive battles, decisive campaigns and formal endings.
They typically last for decades. In the way they are conducted, contemporary
wars are fought by loosely knit groups of regulars, irregulars, cells, and occa-
sionally locally based warlords under little or no central authority. As Van
Creveld points out, "Very rarely do they [LICs] involve regular armies on both
sides, though often it is a question of regulars on one side fighting guerrillas,
terrorists, and even civilians, including women and children on the other."lS
An important consequence of this is that in this new type of organised vio-
lence the distinction between war (understood as violence between states or
organised political groups for political motives) and organised crime and
large-scale violations of human rights is largely blurred.lg
Furthermore, contemporary armed conflicts develop within what Kaldor
terms the new "globalised" war economy. In the present day 'war economies'
are highly decentralised and only a fraction of the population participates
directly in the war. This participation is usually undertaken amidst high
unemployment scenarios characterised by heavy dependence on external
resources, a decline in domestic production and physical destruction coupled
with interruptions in normal trade and taxation mechanisms. These factors
force parties in conflict to finance themselves either through plunder and the
black market or external assistance by diaspora communities, support from
neighbouring governments or illegal trade in arms, drugs or valuable corn-
m~dities.*~ Finally, an important characteristic of contemporaql warfare is
complexity. Complexity is an important dimension of 'new wars' because in
the vast majority of cases there are several and varied factions involved, as
well as a multitude of external parties which may provide consultation, fund-
ing, technical support and in many cases direct military involvement and
assistance.
The structural transformation of war described above is seen by Kaldor.
Holsti and Van Creveld to be a consequence of a radical change in conflict
goals. The profile of wars has changed because 'new wars' are "about iden-
tity politics in contrast to the geo-political or ideological goals of earlier
wars':" Ranging from ethnic politics to nationalist movements claiming inde-
pendence or secession, the vast majority of groups engaged in contemporary
armed conflicts define themselves on the basis of their identity, whether of a
national, ethnic, religious or cultural character. In fact, self-determination is