188 Scarcity and SurfeitAmong these five variables, the role of distributive agents is ostensibly the
one determinant of macro-level developments amenable to policy mitigation.
The nature of these agents mirrors physical, demographic, and other essen-
tially infrastructural variables; where the agency corresponds to rules, prac-
tices, traditions, and other protocols subsumed within formal and cultural
institutions.
Our analysis of the Sudanese conflict cycle begins with an overview of the
Sudan conflict, tracing the system's history, underlying pattern and distinc-
tive features. This allows us to map systemic elements and cyclical dynamics
of the Sudan conflict system, with a view to guiding policy interventions.
Turning to the environmental analysis, we explore the interaction between
people and their environment in Sudan, illustrating how natural systems
shape the north-south divide. We then reverse the telescope, and examine the
patterns of resource consumption and management, revealing how a top-
down approach to resource management has deepened the fissures in the
Sudanese society.
The Jonglei Dam case study illustrates the top-down approach to resource
management carried over from the colonial regime and how it can lead to
conflict through a failure to involve affected communities in resource man-
agement decisions, and through a failure to deliver to these communities on
promised benefits.
Delving into the Dinka-Nuer conflict cycle, we see how environmental fac-
tors and alternative livelihood strategies permitted the Nuer to expand at the
expense of the Dinka. Indeed, we posit that conflict would continue at the
heart of Sudan even were the entire country of one religion, in the face of
what might be the single largest case of one community displacing and occu-
pying another group's territory in known history.
The oil factor has assumed critical importance of late, and as such has
been unpacked in the subsequent section. Our analysis here suggests that
revenues from petroleum production are financing the conflict, that the oil-
fields have become strategic targets for rebels, and that various foreign inter-
ests - China and Malaysia, and multinational corporations from Europe,
North America and Asia - have interests that are not necessarily aligned with
the promotion of peace. Noting that unregulated environmental and social
aspects of oil production also have significaut impacts on the conflict dynam-
ic in the country, it stresses that if the international community were sincere
in seeking peace for Sudan, it must take multilateral measures to regulate
petro-revenues in the region.
The study concludes by exploring various factors critical to reform in order
for peace to emerge - advocacy, emergency relief, oil production, and natu-
ral resource governance.