Oil and Water in SudanDespite official statements that the SPLM/SPLA seeks a united Sudan,
many rural Dinka see the movement as an organisation defending its interests
in opposition to the competing interests of other ethnic groups.45
Macro-level data for Sudan is, of course, hard to come by. But we can iden-
tify basic demographic, technological, and economic trends - and their con-
sequences. One indication is the population's greater vulnerability to ecolog-
ical vagaries - particularly in the more remote flood-prone areas. And except
for those who migrated to work on large state schemes, most of the popula-
tion depends upon technologically static mixed subsistence production.
Despite other commercially valuable commodities, on the local level the eco-
nomic importance of livestock and cattle remains paramount.
Lineage and clan retain their function as distributive agents, although the
presence of developmental and relief agencies has enhanced the role of ua-
ditional chiefs. Social relations are critical for coping strategies, and those
who are not well placed in local webs of relations are the most vulnerable in
the face of political and environmental vagaries.46
The SPLM began establishing border police posts, courts, and other mecha-
nisms of local governance in 1985. By 1989 the SPLA controlled a large area of
southern Sudan and could lay claim to a measure of administrative capacity. The
resulting political legitimacy and coordinated action by commanders in the field
saw the movement achieve impressive results in controlling communal raiding.
The inter-tribal peace conference at Akobo in 1990 successfully addressed Nuer,
Anuak, Mwle, and Di hostilities." For a while these successes concealed the
leadership's internal wrangles, soldiers' abuse and pillaging of local communi-
ties, and the sway of commercial oppormnities on field commanders.
But then the SPLA lost ground, and the position of the SPLM began to
unravel during the 1990s. What began as an internal political dissonance
catalysed the renewal of Dinka-Nuer conflict, and this in turn precipitated the
demographic-environmental trends listed above into a series of disasters.
The evolution of the SPLA/M reveals the influence of the flood plain envi-
ronment. Initially, mutual hatred of the northern regime united the military
officers who, like their Anyanya predecessors, turned their arms against the
state. But over time ethnically marked but environmentally based cenuifugal
forces began to erode the movement's solidarity from within. Surplus, in the
form of military success of the early 1990s, followed by shortfall in the form
of the drought and famine of 1995-96, exacerbated internal dissension;
Khartoum then moved to exploit the factionalisation of the struggle.Cycle Three: the Nasir revolt - Dinka versus Nuer revisited
The most recent episode of Nuer-Dinka violence began with the Nasir
Declaration of 1991, which led to the formation of the SSIM/A (Southern
Sudan Independence Movement/Amy). The resulting war within a war was