Oil and Water in .%dm 233
problem of Dinka dominance. Whereas the Anyanya began as an Equatorial
initiative, the dilemma is more acute in the current context due to their ascen-
dant position in the SPLA/M. Variables such as 90% illiteracy and the indige-
nous Dinka cultural complex to conclude that regardless of the SPLM's ofli-
cia1 ideological stand and content governance policies, for the Dinka such
content is understood in terms of their traditional wamor ideology.
Direct dependence on subsistence production highly susceptible to cli-
matic vagaries augurs for an increasing trend of violent competition over
natural resources. Factionalisation among leaders and other problems respon-
sible for the localisation of the resistance movement decrease concern of
Dinka dominance. There is, therefore, greater likelihood of conflict between
the numerous antagonistic ethnic dyads.
Early in 2002 the Church-led Track Two processes, in the form of the New
Sudan Council of Churches sponsored Wunlit Dinka Nuer Meetings in Bahr
a1 Ghazal represented the main approach to ethnic conflict management.
This, and similar meetings for peace making and reconciliation like the 1994
Nuer Lou-Jikany meeting in Akobo have produced effective but fragile
accords. Our analysis of initial conditions, emphasising factors like the insta-
bilities of the flood plain environment and other centrifugal forces (e.g. spa-
tial separation and variation), suggest that underlying ecological causes of
local conflict often work in tandem with political factors to undermine such
accords over time.
In interviews on the subject, Sudanese staff of northern NGOs tended to
presume if not peace, the lowering of hostilities is imminent, and suggested
the knowledge exists to make 'getting it right in the beginning' the logical
theme of advocacy strategies for southern Sudan. The region's endemic
uncertainty and other factors, however, caution against focusing on the pos-
itive scenario to the detriment of forces suggesting this might also be the
most precarious and dangerous juncture in the decades-long struggle.
Sometimes these intercommunal disputes feed into larger contexts of
national war, such as the Baggara Arab and Dinka in Sudan, as well as the
Isaaq and Ogadeni in eastern Ethiopia, Somaliland and, during Siad Barre's
reign, Somalia. Agriculturalists on both sides of the divide are increasingly in
conflict with pastoral groups, such as southward-moving Dinka pastoralisrs
and the Mundri, and the Baggara Arab pastoralists and the settled Fur com-
munities in western Sudan.
Indeed, current empirical conditions mirror the conclusions generated by
Fearon and Laitin's'O6 macro-level analysis of factors driving modern civil
wars around the globe. The authors proposed to test the thesis that the
nationalism and grievances of culturally distinct minorities is responsible for
contemporary civil wars. Their findings however, contradict the 'highly influ-
ential conventional wisdom: The analysis differentiates between minority
and ethnic sub-nationalism and the grievances and ambitions of insurgent