292 Scarcity and Surfeit
consider the specific needs of poor communities vulnerable to conflict, nor do
they support peace building in conflict areas.
In addition, there remains little recognition of the linkages between issues
of land and resource rights and conflict in most areas. 'Environmental' issues
are rarely accounted for in conflict mitigation strategies in Ethiopia.I8' Within
the United Nations, environmental or ecological issues as sources of conflict
are not considered a priority.188 One small encouragement is the inclusion of
pastoralism and conflict issues in a recent World Bank Regional Consultation
on food security in the Horn of Africa, based on the cross-cutting theme of
"Environment, natural resources and social issues".
Conflict prevention and resolution mechanisms need to be coordinated
with environmental warning and response systems. There has been a gov-
ernment early warning system in Ethiopia since 1976. Since 1993 there is a
distinct effort to decentralise decision making and to add other responses
other than just food aid. This official system has had a fairly reliable track
record of timely and accurate warnings of forthcoming emergencies. The offi-
cial government system is supplemented by a number of parallel systems
including USAID FEWS, WFP needs assessment, FA0 harvest assessment,
and formal and informal monitoring and networking carried out by non-gov-
ernmental organisations. The record of responding to early warning informa-
tion is less impressive. For example, the Dergue government in 1984 ignored
information suggesting impending famine until it was too late, and subse-
quently there were problems with timely donor response.189
The situation found in Awash is extremely complex. Establishing the true
sources of the conflict in the basin is difficult and remains contested. It is
clear, however, that though conflict in the basin appears to centre on land
and resources, there are numerous other factors that are important in under-
standing the conflict. These are deeply embedded in history, politics and
socio-economics, and which may have little or no direct relationship with
ecological or environmental factors. For example, though it is apparent that
environmental degradation is occurring in many parts of the basin as pres-
sures on remaining and relatively accessible resources increase, one factor
alone cannot be held responsible for this. As described earlier, environmen-
tal 'degradation' is influenced by a range of actions rooted in geopolitics and
the inequitable distribution of resources at national, regional, local and
household levels. As such, simple environment-conflict linkages are of little
use in understanding and resolving conflict in the basin.
Although there is certainly some truth in the theoretical concept of
'resource capture"9o in relation to the past and current conflicts found in
Awash, this is the result of a wide range of factors, including the relative
abundance of some resources in the basin. The case of the protection of irri-
gation schemes that were subsequently a primary scene of conflict provides
one example. There is no evidence to suggest that when irrigation schemes