294 Scarcity and Surfeit
distinct from those flowing from the White Nile Basin (Rwanda, Burundi,
Uganda, Tanzania and Kenya). The Blue Nile, which originates from Lake
Tana in the Ethiopian highlands, contributes the major part of the water
resources of the Nile going downstream to Sudan and Egypt. Accordingly, it
is Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia that have a major stake in the management and
use of Nile waters, which may be a potential source of conflict in the future.
Moreover, the current Nile Basin Initiative (as described below) also accounts
for this possibility: Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt are grouped as the 'Eastern
Nile Basin countries'.
A significant part of the average annual flow of the Nile (estimated at 84
billion cubic metres at Aswan High Dam in southern Egypt) originates from
the Ethiopian plateau, crossing Ethiopia's western boundary into neighbour-
ing Sudan and then to Egypt, before emptying into the Mediterranean Sea.
Ethiopia contributes 86% of the total annual flow of the Nile going down-
stream to Sudan and Egypt, whose major river basins are the Baro-Akobo
(Sobat), Abbay (Blue Nile) and Tekezze (Atbara). In fact, the Blue Nile con-
tributes approximately 95% of the Nile waters during the long rainy season
(July-September), and 86% overall annually. The remaining 14% is con-
tributed by the White Nile catchment area that includes Rwanda, Burundi,
Tanzania, Uganda, Zaire, Kenya and Sudan. Sudan and Egypt do not con-
tribute to the waters of the Nile but are the predominant users of its waters
to date (Table 9).
In this sense, it comes as no surprise that Egypt, which is the lowermost
riparian state and almost entirely dependent on the waters originating out-
side its borders, is concerned by the development and use of Nile waters in
Sudan and Ethiopia. Ethiopia is similarly concerned with water resources
development downstream in Egypt and Sudan because of the fact that these
might pre-empt its own plans to develop the water resources of the Nile flow-
ing within its territory. In other words, the Nile is a key factor determining
the relationship between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia, and is a potential source
of conflict.
From a hydrological point of view, the Nile ties Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt,
forming the basis and opportunity for integrated and cooperative management
and use. However, the existence of political boundaries and consequent diver-
gent national interests and priorities has led to competing and sometimes con-
flicting interests and demands over the use of its waters. The use of Nile waters
has been politicised, and remains contentious between the different basin coun-
tries. Historically the Nile was developed to meet the unilateral needs and
demands of the two downstream riparian states (Egypt and Sudan) without any
tangible benefits for Ethiopia.
Egypt's major strategy (and to a lesser extent that of Sudan) was to secure
an uninterrupted and stable supply of Nile waters. The Nile is vital for agri-
cultural production and freshwater supplies in the two countries, but originates