300 Scarcity and Surfeit
resources development in the Nile was premised largely on achieving water
security for Egypt irrespective of the potential demands that the other
upstream states such as Ethiopia may have at any future time. Egypt consid-
ers secure control of the Nile waters an issue of national survival, as indicat-
ed earlier.
On the other hand, for several decades, Ethiopia is increasingly vulnerable
to recurrent drought and famine. This is commonly attributed to dependence
on rain-fed agriculture in the Nile Basin in Ethiopia. Attainment of food secu-
rity in the country requires the development of irrigated agriculture on a large
scale, which will affect the current allocation of waters to downstream ripar-
ian states. Moreover, irrigated water resources development in the Ethiopian
plateau is the only alternative that could stem worsening environmental
degradation within the basin and prevent mass migration of the increasing
population to other areas of Ethi~pia.'~'
It is cautioned that "close attention needs to be given by all concerned to
the implications of the probable doubling of the population of the Ethiopian
Nile Basin during 1996-2020, with respect to the impacts on food security,
use of the Nile waters and increased potential for conflict if that population
continues to depend on peasant farming".208 In the light of this, future coop-
eration among Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt might depend on the extent to
which Egypt and Sudan are prepared to relinquish a portion of their alloca-
tion of Nile waters to give way to consumptive hydraulic works in Ethiopia.
Increased Competition over Limited Nile Water SupplyOne of the most crucial issues that tends to fuel tensions between the two
downstream countries, Egypt and Sudan, on the one hand, and Ethiopia, on
the other, is the equitable distribution of the water supply of the Nile among
these basin states to satisfy their national water demands. The most con-
tentious issue is that of water demand for irrigated agriculture, which con-
sumes most of the Nile waters.
Egypt is already using its allocated share under the Nile waters agreement
(55 billion cubic metres) and possibly even an additional six billion cubic
metres, as Sudan is not yet in a position to use its allocated share. Ethiopia is
currently in need of water for irrigated agriculture to attain national food secu-
rity and mitigate famine and drought, to which its growing population is high-
ly susceptible. This is currently estimated at around 30.5 billion cubic metres
according to the recent master plan studies conducted in the three sub-basins
of the Nile.209
However, Egypt and Sudan do not appear ready to reduce their allocations
of waters to accommodate claims by Ethiopia. Both Egypt and Sudan argue
that the share of Nile waters endows them with an historical right that
is sacrosanct and not negotiable. In fact, Egypt is currently increasing its