310 Scarcity and Surfeit
social, political, economic and historical context in which competitions for
land and resources occur is vital to comprehensively understand the role of
'ecological' factors in conflict in Ethiopia. These are embedded in geopolitics,
imperialism, ethnicity, international issues (such as trade), strategic interests,
as well as the (un)democratic institutions of the state.
On an annual basis and in normal years, Ethiopia has more than sufficient
fresh water for the needs of its population. However, its distribution is high-
ly variable. Water, therefore, can be considered to be both abundant and
scarce at varying times and places, and for different groups and individuals.
In areas of scarcity, land and resources can trigger conflicts. These conflicts
have intensified due to resource capture by stronger elements in society.
Therefore, though water and other ecological resources do play an important
role in conflict, they cannot be separated from broader issues, including
social inequities, economics and politics. Indeed, it is among these variables
that the deeper and enduring sources of the conflicts can be located.
Conflict also occurs where water is comparatively abundant. However, the
source of these conflicts is identifiable in the longer history of resource cap-
ture and protection by the government, commercial and conservation inter-
ests. As the case study has shown, in the Awash River Basin the establish-
ment of both the irrigation schemes and the Awash National Park has meant
that customary users of land and resources, primarily pastoralists, were mar-
ginalised and forced to move into one anothers' territories. As a result, con-
flict to access and control resources has ensued.
Conflict involving land and resources is likely to increase unless the root
sources are recognised and addressed. Although Ethiopia is now engaged in
negotiations at an international level over the allocation and use of Nile
waters, the country needs to prioritise negotiations to resolve land and natu-
ral resource conflicts at the regional and local levels as well. To date, invest-
ment in such negotiations and other conflict prevention and resolution mech-
anisms has been minimal. There is little evidence that the true sources of
conflict, which include ecological factors to some degree, are being assessed
and incorporated. Though traditional mechanisms have existed, these are
under increasing pressure and there is a risk that their potentially positive
input has been lost. It is vital that the issues explored above are addressed if
the predicted future water wars are to be prevented.
Endnotes
1 B Cmssette, Severe Water Crisis Ahead for Poorest Nations in Next Two Decades,
New York Times, 10 August 1995.
2 R Smith, Africa's Potential Water Wars, 1999, < http://www.news.bbc.co.uk /hi/eng-
lish/world/africa/newsid~454000/454926.strn >