Scarcity and Surfeit" ... outside parties are not merely potential and then actual partisans.
Their intervention and active involvement is much more complex than
making a simple choice of sides. Their intervention changes the dimen-
sions of the conflict and the possible pay-offs for all parties ... outside par-
ties have their own interests and these affect their conduct in any given
conflict. If the outside party is sufficiently powerful relative to the contest-
ants, it may be able to impose its terms upon the contending parties ...'''"It should be noted that the effects of the regional level on the occurrence and
development of a particular armed conflict should be looked both from the
perspective of the possible impact that a.conflict has in its neighbourhood,
through processes of 'spillover' and 'contagion', as well as the actions and
policies that neighbouring states have in regard to the conflict. In this sense,
an analysis that takes both processes into account seems the best way for-
ward. On the one hand, the effects that conflicts have on neighbouring states
may include refugee problems, economic problems (disruption of regional
trade, communications, and production networks), military problems (the
use of a neighbouring state's territory for the trans-shipment of arms and
supplies; the use of a neighbours territory by rebel groups as bases of opera-
tions and sanctuaries; the launch of attacks from neighbouring states) and
therefore contribute to regional instability. On the other hand, neighbouring
states also may intervene in these conflicts through defensive and protective
interventions, opportunistic interventions, as well as more benign involve-
ment such as humanitarian intervention and peace making intervention^.^^^Ecological Sources of Conflict
The six chapters of this book focus broadly on two volatile regions in sub-
Saharan Africa: the Greater Horn of Africa, including Somalia, Ethiopia and
Sudan, and the Great Lakes region, with Burundi, Rwanda and the Democratic
Republic of Congo. The geographical boundaries of these conflicts span a
much wider reach and include a broader constellation of actors with diverse
interests, than is typically appreciated. Hence, the interfaces between different
conflicts in these regions are identified. At the same time, case studies in each
chapter provide a narrower and more nuanced perspective.
A number of linkages bind different conflicts in the Great Lakes and
Greater Horn to national, regional and international contexts. For example,
conflict between herders and farmers in the Awash Valley in Ethiopia and in
the Nile flood plain in the Equatoria province of Sudan have linkages to wider
regional conflicts involving Sudan, Ethiopia, and Egypt. These conflicts
involve the sharing of the Nile waters, but include other important sources of
conflict, as well.