450 Richard T. Corlett and Richard B. Primack
companies on the ground, traders in Singapore,
buyers in Hong Kong, and factories in China,
where at least one merbau log is consumed every
minute of every working day (EIA 2005). The
ongoing construction of roads in previously inac-
cessible areas will inevitably accelerate this illegal
exploitation.
Until recently, the rainforests of Papua New
Guinea, which occupies the eastern half of the
island, appeared to have a much brighter future.
The relatively low human population density in
the lowlands and a unique system of clan con-
trol of forest lands created barriers to large-scale
logging or conversion to cash crops. However,
over the last two decades Papua New Guinea has
experienced a logging boom, causing severe, but
still localized, environmental damage (Sizer and
Plouvier 2000, World Bank 2002). Corruption
has been a massive problem, with logging con-
cessions awarded in return for bribes to senior
officials. High birth rates pose a problem for the
future, with the human population of Papua
New Guinea expected to grow from its present
4.8 million to 11 million by 2050.
Australia
Although the total area of tropical rainforest in
Australia is tiny by global standards, it is of great
interest from both a biological and a conservation
perspective. After a long period of exploitation of
the forests, followed by an epic struggle between
competing interest groups in the 1980s, Australia
has now protected most of its remaining tropical
rainforests, including all of the larger blocks, in
the 8940 km^2 Wet Tropics of Queensland World
Heritage Area (McDonald and Lane 2002, Stork
2005). Despite the absence of spectacular wildlife,
the protected rainforests have been a hugely suc-
cessful tourist attraction.The region still has many
environmental problems, but most seem relatively
minor in comparison with the massive threats to
rainforests elsewhere. One exception is the threat
from climate change, since the concentration of
the Australian endemic rainforest vertebrates in
upland areas makes them especially vulnerable
to global warming (Hilbertet al. 2001, Meynecke
2004).
Island rainforestsMost rainforest islands are in the Pacific, but
there are also a number in the Indian Ocean
(the Andaman, Nicobar, Comoro, Mascarene, and
Seychelles islands), a few in the Atlantic (Principe,
São Tomé, and Annobon), and many in the
Caribbean. The total area of these island rain-
forests worldwide is very small and the forests
on each island are much less species rich than
their continental counterparts, but the high rate
of endemism means that together they support
a significant proportion of all rainforest species.
Their biotas are also highly endangered: around
75% of terrestrial vertebrate extinctions in the
last 400 years have been on islands, although by
no means all in rainforest (Primack 2006). Today,
island rainforests suffer from the same problems
as continental rainforests, exacerbated by tiny for-
est areas and population sizes, with the additional
problem of an apparently much greater suscep-
tibility to invasion by exotic plant and animal
species (Loopeet al. 2001, Teoet al. 2003).SAVING THE RAINFORESTS
We have reached the point where preliminary
evaluations can be made of the various strategies
that have been used to conserve rainforests.Protected areasWith a few exceptions, relatively intact tropical
rainforests only survive today either in regions
with very few human inhabitants or in areas set
aside for their protection. Human populations in
the tropics are expected to rise by 2 billion over
the next 25 years (Wright 2005); this increase,
coupled with expanding exploitation of rainfor-
est resources, will ensure that isolation will not
provide protection much longer. Thus, the single
most important strategy for protecting intact rain-
forest communities is to establish – and effectively
manage – protected areas (Terborghet al. 2002,
Peres 2005).
There is a great deal of variation in the suc-
cess of existing parks in protecting rainforest