or testimony. Often, the probability of some fact given the denial of a theory is equated
with its probability, given some specific alternative to that theory. But this assumes that
all other alternatives are so implausible that they can be ignored.
7.One might object that the argument here relies on the notorious “principle of
indifference.” For a defense of that principle properly understood, see Schlesinger (1991,
ch. 9).
8.Of course, the existence of a natural cause for some event is, strictly speaking,
compatible, not just with an ultimate divine cause, but also with some simultaneous direct
divine cause. But this would be to multiply causes far beyond what is necessary or
warranted by the evidence.
9.Some fact F supports (in the sense intended here) theism (T) over metaphysical
naturalism (N) if and only if Pr(F/T) > Pr(F/N). But Pr(F/T) = 1 − Pr(F/T) and Pr(F/N)
= 1 − Pr(F/N). Thus, Pr(F/T) > Pr(F/N) if and only if Pr(F/N) > Pr(F/T). Therefore, F
supports theism over metaphysical naturalism if and only if the fact that F does not obtain
supports metaphysical naturalism over theism.
WORKS CITED
Alston, William P. 1985. “God's Action in the World.” In Evolution and Creation, ed.
Ernan McMullin, 197–220. Notre Dame, Ind.: University of Notre Dame Press.
Barbour, Ian. 1990. Religion in an Age of Science. New York: HarperCollins.
Clayton, Philip. 1997. God and Contemporary Science. Grand Rapids, Mich.: Eerdmans.
end p.301
Craig, William Lane, and J. P. Moreland, eds. 2000. Naturalism: A Critical Analysis.
London: Routledge.
Dembski, William A. 1994. “On the Very Possibility of Intelligent Design.” In The
Creation Hypothesis, ed. J. P. Moreland, 113–38. Downers Grove, Ill.: InterVarsity Press.
Dobzhansky, Theodosius. 1971. The Biology of Ultimate Concern. London: Fontana.
Draper, John William. 1875. History of the Conflict between Religion and Science. New
York: D. Appleton.
Drees, Willem B. 1996. Religion, Science and Naturalism. Cambridge, England:
Cambridge University Press.
Edwards, Ward, Harold Lindman, and Leonard J. Savage. 1963. “Bayesian Statistical
Inference for Psychological Research.” Psychological Review 70.3 (May): 193–242.
Gould, Stephen Jay. 2001. “Two Separate Domains.” In Philosophy of Religion: Selected
Readings, 2nd edition, ed. Michael Peterson, William Hasker, Bruce Reichenbach, and
David Basinger, 499–509. New York: Oxford University Press.
Harris, James F. 1992. Against Relativism: A Philosophical Defense of Method. LaSalle,
Ill.: Open Court.
Hartshorne, Charles. 1967. A Natural Theology for Our Time. La Salle, Ill.: Open Court.
John Paul II. 1988. “Message to the Reverend George V. Coyne, S. J.” In Physics,
Philosophy, and Theology: A Common Quest for Understanding, ed. Robert J. Russell,