Global Warming

148 The impacts of climate change

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Figure 7.1Global average sea level rise 1990–2100 for the SRES scenarios.

Each of the six lines identified in the key is the average of the AOGCMs for one

of the six illustrative SRES scenarios. The region in dark shading shows the range

of the average of AOGCMs for all thirty-five SRES scenarios. The region in light

shading shows the range of all AOGCMs for all thirty-five SRES scenarios. The

region delineated by the outermost lines shows the range of all AOGCMs and

scenarios including uncertainties in land ice changes, permafrost changes and

sediment deposition. Note that this range does not allow for uncertainty relating

to ice-dynamical changes in the West Antarctic ice-sheet (see text). The bars at

the right show the range in 2100 of all AOGCMs for the six illustrative scenarios.

Figure 7.2Estimate of sea
level rise under a scenario with
increasing greenhouse gases
until the year 2030, at which
time it is assumed that
greenhouse gases are
stabilised so that there is no
further radiative forcing of the
climate. An additional rise in
sea level occurs during the
remainder of the century as
the increase in temperature
penetrates to more of the
ocean. The rise will continue
at about the same rate for the
following centuries as the rest
of the ocean warms.