Future energy projections 27104 0003 5003 0002 5002 0001 5001 000500Gt COil
GasCoalHistoricalfossil fuel
emissions1860-1998B1 A1TB2A1BA2A1FIWRE350WRE450WRE550WRE650WRE750WRE1000Reserves and resources Emissions SRES scenarios Stabilisation scenariosOilCoal
GasConventional reserves
Conventional resources (upper estimate)
Unconventional reserves and resourcesFigure 11.2Carbon in oil, gas and coal reserves and resources compared with historic fossil fuel carbon
emissions over the period 1860–1998 and with cumulative carbon emissions up to the year 2100 from a range of
SRES scenarios and scenarios leading to stabilisation of carbon dioxide concentrations. Data for current estimates
of reserves and resources are shown in the left-hand columns. Unconventional oil and gas includes tar sands, shale
oil, other heavy oil, coal bed methane, deep geopressured gas, gas in aquifiers, etc. Gas hydrates (clathrates) that
amount to an estimated 12 000 GtC are not shown. Note that if by the year 2100 cumulative emissions associated
with SRES scenarios are equal to or smaller than those for stabilisation scenarios, this does not imply that these
scenarios equally lead to stabilisation.
availability, in particular environmental considerations, that will provide
limitations on fossil fuel use.
Future energy projections
In Chapter 6 were described the SRES scenarios sponsored by the IPCC
that detail, for the twenty-first century, a range of possibilities regarding
future energy demand (based on a range of assumptions concerning
population, economic growth and social and political development), how
that demand might be met and what carbon dioxide emissions might
result. In that chapter were also described the implications for those
scenarios regarding climate change. Chapter 10 presented the imperative
set out by the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) in its
Objective that carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere must
be stabilised so that continued anthropogenic climate change can be