Future energy projections 273Figure 11.4Scenarios of carbon dioxide emissions during the twenty-first
century from fossil fuel burning for WEC scenarios A, B and C (details in Tables
11.1 and 11.2). It is only scenario C that leads to stabilisation of carbon dioxide
concentrations as required by the Objective of the Climate Convention.
One of the bodies that has considered how such a target can be met
is the World Energy Council (WEC), who have constructed four detailed
energy scenarios (Figure 11.4) for the period to 2020, extended with less
detail to 2100.^6 Three of the scenarios (more details in box on pages
276–7) make assumptions (more details in the box below) that fall within
the range of those made by the SRES scenarios. The fourth scenario C,
which is described as ‘ecologically driven’, assumes that environmental
pressures have a large influence on energy demand and growth. For all
these scenarios, except WEC scenario C, atmospheric concentrations of
carbon dioxide continue to rise throughout the twenty-first century. It
is WEC scenario C, if achieved, that is consistent with carbon dioxide
stabilisation with a target in the range 450–500 ppm.
Details of the scenarios to the year 2020 are shown in Figures 11.5
and 11.6. As can be seen from Figure 11.5, it is only in the devel-
oped world that there is potential for containing future energy demand.