222 Urbanization models and the regions
further out from the metro area; and patches aggregated in various ways. Since
this model mimics sprawl, these variants should be grist for modeling and dis-
covering solutions for sprawl.
Finally, the four contrasting urbanization models were developed after consid-
ering a wide range of actual urban-growth patterns plus diverse types of possible
change models (see preceding sections). The relatively clear-cut results from the
four models seem to capture the primary patterns and alternatives for urbaniza-
tion. Still, modifications of a pattern and different patterns warrant evaluation.
In attempting to mimic reality with a model, selecting the most informative
variables and determining the fewest that are sufficient are challenges. Avoid-
ing oversimplification and avoiding misleading results are goals. Also excessive
complexity is to be avoided so that the model enhances understanding and is
ultimately useful for society. Future research and application will determine
how well the four urbanization models (Figure8.2)meet these goals.
Most urban regions probably manifest two or more of the urbanization pat-
terns, so evaluating combinations of the four core models seems promising. Thus
combining concentric zones and satellite cities, or transportation corridors and
satellite cities models, would be interesting. Even combining three options, e.g.,
dispersed sites with both transportation corridors and satellite cities might be
informative. Landscape ecologists, urban geographers, and many others have
much expertise to offer, from empirical measurement ‘‘on the ground” to mod-
eling of diverse urbanization patterns. Identifying and evaluating the few basic
patterns in a useful form for planners, ecologists, policymakers, and the pub-
lic is an important step toward creating urban regions that sustain nature
and us.
Several other dimensions of urbanization, from sea-level-rise effects to putting
themodel results into action, are introduced in Chapter 12. The core models
and the guiding principles added to our repertoire in this chapter also remind
us that, paraphrasing Isaac Newton, we mainly build on the shoulders of giants
before us. Therefore, in the next chapter we turn to many principles already on
the table forustouse.