ADA.org: Future of Dentistry Full Report

FUTURE OFDENTISTRY

DENTAL SCHOOL APPLICANTS

The Applicant Pool

Like other professions, dentistry goes through

cycles during which the applicant pool rises,

declines, rises again, continuing in this wavelike pat-

tern over time.

As indicated in Figure 6.1, the number of dental

school applicants peaked in 1978, and then dropped

precipitously to a 30-year low in 1989. The next

year, in 1990, applications began a dramatic

increase and reached a high in 1997 of just over

9,800. Between 1998-2000, applications have

declined modestly. The latest decline, however, has

not led to a corresponding enrollment or academic

decline. There is some concern that the almost 30%

drop in Dental Aptitude Test (DAT) participants in

early 2000 may presage a sharper, short-term

decline in dental school applicants.

There are some factors that suggest that the latest

decline in size of the dental applicant pool may be less

drastic and have lesser consequences than the dramatic

applicant pool shrinkage experienced during the 1980s.

A second reason the decline is not expected to be

long lasting is that the current environment for den-

tal practice is extremely favorable, and especially so

for new practitioners. Whether relying on anecdot-

al reports of increasing practice opportunities, or on

the reports that assert or predict dental workforce

maldistribution, virtually all signs point to a favorable

professional practice climate for the next few cohorts

of dentists. Such a situation should also act as a brake

on the current decline in the applicant pool.

Third, the potential size of the applicant pool has

grown significantly since 1980, some say it has near-

ly doubled, due to an increased number of female

applicants. In most schools women now represent

30-40% of the student body.

Fourth, the number of dental

school seats to be filled is 30%

smaller than was the case in the

early 1980s. This suggests that

some decline in the size of the

applicant pool can be accom-

modated without serious aca-

demic consequences.

Fifth, there is informal evi-

dence from dental admissions

directors that, contrary to past

experience, the modest decline

in the size of the applicant pool

has not been accompanied by a

parallel decline in the grade

point average (GPA) of entering

students. In fact, quite the op-

posite seems to have occurred

in a number of schools, a

phenomenon that requires

explanation.

In spite of these positive fac-

tors, it would be foolish to be

complacent about the current

decline in the size of the dental

applicant pool. Much more

needs to be done to understand it in order to bet-

ter manage dental school admissions policies and

programs in the future.

A potentially important factor that may dis-

courage dental school applicants may be the

recent rise in dental school tuitions, and the asso-

ciated increase in indebtedness among the gradu-

ates from dental schools. Dental students gradu-

ate with somewhat higher debt loads as compared

to medical students. This applies to comparisons

Dental Education

Applicants First-Year Enrollment

Source: ADA, Surveys of Predoctoral Dental Educational Institutions.

18,000

16,000

14,000

12,000

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

0

4,644

3 , 573

6, 301

3 , 979 4,^347

4, 964

9 ,82 9

15 , 734

FIGURE 6. 1

U.S. Dental Schools: Trend of Applicants

and First-Year Enrollees, 1950 - 1998

19

51

19

53

19

55

19

57

19

59

19

61

19

63

19

65

19

67

19

69

19

71

19

73

19

75

19

77

19

79

19

81

19

83

19

85

19

87

19

89

199

1

199

3

199

5

199

7

199

8

APPL

ICANTS

AND

E

N

R

OLLM

E

NTS

YEAR