The Economist - USA (2022-02-12)

The Economist February 12th 2022 BriefingUttarPradesh 15

Over five terms as an mpthe tonsured,
saffron­robed  monk  gained  a  reputation
for fiery chauvinism. In one speech he de­
clared, “If they take one Hindu girl, we will
take 100 Muslim girls.” When the bjptook
hold of the uplegislature in 2017 (see chart
2) some warned Mr Modi that raising such
an  extremist  to  high  office  would  damage
the  party’s  image.  Mr  Modi  ignored  them,
confident  that  India’s  political  centre  was
shifting further to the right, and was thus
able to accommodate such views. 
The  chief  minister  lacks  his  sponsor’s
sharp  political  instincts  and  photogenic
flair, but shares his commitment to celiba­
cy, penchant for pithy speech and snarling
contempt for the old Anglophone order. He
is no placeman. With his own independent
base, he is rumoured to bridle at the inter­
fering ways of the prime minister’s office,
of the bjphigh command and of the Rash­
triya  Swayamsevak  Sangh,  the  Hindutva
mother  organisation  in  which  Mr  Modi
served  before  turning  to  politics.  But  his
style and views link him inextricably to Mr
Modi’s project. If he does well, it will be a
good omen both for that project’s continu­
ation  and  for  Mr  Adityanath’s  role  in  it.  If
he does badly, it may be back to temple du­
ties for him.

Disharmonious monk
Mr  Adityanath  has  been  an  industrious
and  demanding  leader.  He  has  promoted
Hindutva in various ways, including throt­
tling  the  trade  or  slaughter  of  cattle,  pro­
moting religious events and further crimi­
nalising  the  encouragement  of  religious
conversion,  ostensibly  to  protect  Hindu
women against a “love jihad” being waged
by Muslims. He has also diligently pursued
the “development for all” agenda. 
All  Indian  parties  promise  voters  goo­
dies. But Mr Modi has taken a strong perso­
nal  interest  in  delivering  freebies  to  the
poor.  From  accelerated  road­building  to
the  provision  of  free  food  during  the  co­
vid­19 epidemic, not to mention handouts
for farmers and other entitled groups, the
“double­engine” effect of aligned state and
national governments mean uphas bene­
fited disproportionately from central­gov­
ernment  largesse.  Certificates  of  vaccina­
tion and sacks of free grain alike come em­
blazoned with the prime minister’s pater­
nal portrait. 
Mr Adityanath also takes a tough line on
law  and  order.  Upper­caste  Hindus,  who
make  up  around  a  fifth  of  the  electorate,
praise  his  gloves­off  approach.  “Earlier,
thugs  and  criminals  used  to  walk  around
with their chests out,” says Rajesh Gupta, a
prosperous  baker  in  Barabanki,  a  provin­
cial town east of the state capital, Lucknow
(see  map  online).  “Now  the  government
has got rid of goondah-gardi(thuggery).”
It is true that incidents of communal ri­
oting, banditry and racketeering, long en­

demictoup, havecomedown.Butoverall,

respectforthelawhasnotgoneup.Inthe

Muslimcommunity(whichmakesup19%

ofthepopulation,comparedwith14%na­

tionwide) and among the Dalits, once

known asUntouchables(21%,compared

with16%),thereislittleloveforthetough

measures about which Mr Adityanath

boasts.Filmofanti­governmentprotests

inMuslimdistrictshasshownpoliceact­

ingasviolentvandals.

Thepolicehaveglaringlyfailedtopro­

tectlower­casteHindus.Inonenotorious

casein 2020 theyignoredtheparentsofa

19­year­old Dalitwoman who accused a

groupofmenfromtheThakurcasteofrap­

ingtheirdaughter.Whenshediedofher

injuriesherfamilywaspressedtocremate

her corpse without a post mortem. A

monthlatertheyusedanti­terrorlawsto

arrestSiddiqueKappan,a journalistcover­

ingthestory.MrKappan,a Muslimfrom

India’sfarsouth,remainsinprisonawait­

ingtrial.Sodomanyofthe 360 otherpeo­

plejailedunderthesamerulesthatyear.

Suchscandalsstemfromthebjp’sfun­

damentallydivisiveapproachtopolitics.If

yousetasidetheupper­casteHindusand

theDalitsandMuslims(whothemselves

aredeeplydividedbyclassandideology),

thebulkofup’selectorateismadeupofa

broad category officially termed Other

BackwardClasses(obcs).Thisthickslice,

including traditional yeoman farmers

suchasJatsandKurmisbutalsomyriad

smaller communities,has inrecent de­

cadesbecomethefiercestpoliticalbattle­

groundinnorthIndianelections.Thebjp’s

successwithobcs,amplifiedbytheeffects

ofIndia’sfirst­past­the­postelectoralsys­

tem,providedthepartywitha landslidein

up’s legislativeelectionfiveyearsago.

In 1980 a governmentcommissionrec­

ommendedthatobcs,andnotjusttruly

oppressedgroupssuchasDalits,should

benefitfromstatequotasinjobsandedu­

cation.Thatencouragedthegrowthofpar­

tiesdemanding respectandrewards for

theirparticulargroup.InnorthernIndia

andelsewherethisunderminedtheonce­

dominantCongressparty,a big­tentmove­

mentthathadledIndiatoindependence.

Inupitwasreplacedbyasystemwhere

powershiftedbackandforthbetweenthe

BahujanSamajParty(bsp),supportedby

DalitsandBrahmins,andtheSamajwadi

Party(sp),dominatedbyYadavs, alarge

obccommunitywhoarebytraditioncat­

tle­herders,thoughfewmaketheirliving

thatwaythesedays.

Startyourdoubleengines

Thebjp’s approachtothisfragmentedelec­

torateistotargethighercasteswithap­

pealstolawandorderandHindupride;to

woosmallerobcgroups,andDalits,byac­

cusingothers,suchasYadavs,ofgrabbing

spoilsforthemselves;andtobinditallto­

gether by stoking hostility to Muslims.

Thisapproachburiedthespandthebspin

theelectionsin2017,producinga legisla­

turewithmorehigh­casteHindusandfew­

erMuslimsthanuphadseenfordecades.

Thesuccess ofthispolarisationstrategy

canbeseenina shiftithasencouragedin

otherparties.Forfearofbeingbrandedas

“appeasing” Muslims or indulging in

“vote­bankpolitics”,manyarenowshyof

runningMuslimcandidates,eveninthe

partsofthestate,suchasitsnorth­west,

whereminoritynumbersarebiggest.

For the bjp’s strategy to work again,

though,itneedsobcvoterswhotrusted

thebjp last timeto do soagain. Some

doubtlesswill.InRamna,a villagenearthe

GangesjustoutsideofVaranasi,a bigpil­

grimagecentrethatMrModihaschosenas

hisownparliamentarydistrict,thegovern­

Big and badly off

Sources:WorldBank;ReserveBankofIndia;NationalFamilyHealthSurvey-

*Basedonnetstatedomesticproductforthefinancialyear †Least-developedcountries ‡201



LDCs†

India

Uttar

Pradesh*

2.01.51.00.

GDPperperson, 2020

$’

LDCs†

India

Uttar

Pradesh*

403020100

GDPperperson,2011-

%increase

LDCs†‡

India

Uttar

Pradesh

6040200

Infant mortality, 201-21 average

Deaths per 1,000 births

A saffron surge

Uttar Pradesh, India, vote share in

national and state elections, %

Source:TrivediCentreforPoliticalData,AshokaUniversity

2

50

40

30

20

10

0

2007 1917141209

Bahujan Samaj Party

Samajwadi Party

Congress

BJP