The Economist - USA (2022-02-12)

18 UnitedStates TheEconomistFebruary12th 2022

from reforms that keep districts fairer.

TakeColorado.Afterthe 2000 and 2010

censuses,statelegislatorstherefailedto

agreeonmaps,sostatecourtsdrewthe

linesinstead. In November2018, fed­up

Coloradanspasseda ballotinitiativethat

authorisedanindependentcommissionof

residents—fourDemocrats,fourRepubli­

cansandfour“unaffiliated”—toredrawthe

state’scongressionalboundaries.Itjoined

ArizonaandCalifornia(whichbeganusing

similarmodelsin 2000 and2010,respec­

tively)and Michigan (2018) as the only

states using partisan­balanced commis­

sionsofcitizenstodrawdistrictmaps.

Colorado’scommissionersbeganmeet­

inginMarch,andbythefinalmonthsthey

wereworkingasmanyas 40 hourseach

weektomeettheirOctoberdeadline.Sim­

plerulesguidedthem:createnon­discrim­

inatory,contiguousdistrictsofequalsize;

maximisepoliticalcompetition;andpre­

serveso­calledcommunitiesofinterest—

neighbourhoodswherevotershaveshared

policyconcernsandwouldbenefitfrom

beinginthesamedistrict(examplesin­

cludeethnic,racialandeconomicgroups).

Thecommission’smapsdonotrequire

approvalfromthegovernororthestateleg­

islature.Thisyearthefinalmappreserves

thepartisanleaningsofColorado’sseven

existingdistricts,andaddsonemoreRe­

publican­leaningseatwiththeadditional

representativethestategainedthanksto

theincreaseinitspopulation.Thecom­

mission also madethe Seventh District

morecompetitive.Thecurrentrepresenta­

tivethere,EdPerlmutter,a Democrat,an­

nouncedlastmonththathewouldnotseek

re­election.InaclimatethatfavoursRe­

publicans,hemayhavestruggledtowin

thereviseddistrictanyway.Themapsin

Michiganendedupsimilarlybalanced.

Lastly,therearethecourts.Those in

OhioandNorthCarolinabothstruckdown

mapstheysaidfavouredRepublicanstoo

much, acting as partisan gerrymanders

thatviolatedstateconstitutions.InOhio,

Republicansdrewa mapwhichmade73%

ofthestate’sdistrictsleantowardsRepub­

licans—thoughthepartywononly55%of

thevotestatewide.“Byanyrationalmea­

sure,”JusticeMichaelDonnellysaidinthe

court’sopinion,“thatskewedresultjust

does notaddup.”Republicans inNorth

Carolinapassedamapwhichgavethem

theedgein71%ofseats,eventhoughDo­

nald Trumpbeat MrBiden by onlyone

pointtherein2020.Neitherstatehasyet

approveda newmap.

A lowercourtinAlabamaalsoruledthat

its new map is biased againstAfrican­

Americans, butonFebruary7th theSu­

premeCourtvoted5­4toapproveitforthe

2022 election.Themapprovidesforonly

oneofsevendistrictswhereblackvoters

willhavea chancetoelecta candidateof

theirchoice,ina statewhere27%ofthe

votersareblack.Plaintiffssaylegislators

couldeasilyhavedrawna second.Thede­

cisionhighlightsthelimitsofa judicialap­

proachto enforcing fairmapmaking—at

leastinthefederalcourts.

Crackingandpacking

Inall,acrossthe 30 statesthathavepassed

mapssofar,Democratshavegained 12 new

seatswheretheymakeupmorethanhalf

ofvotersinpresidentialelections.Yetthe

mapasa wholemaystillbebiasedtowards

Republicans.ThegapbetweenMrBiden’s

marginnationallyandinthenewmedian

islikelytobebetweenhalfanda fullper­

centagepointratherthantwopoints.

Further,somepoliticalscientiststhink

a simpletallyofseatsisnotenoughtoas­

sesspartisanbalancefully.NickStephano­

polous, a Harvard professor who helps

withanalysisatPlanScore,a websitethat

checksmapsforfairness,preferstofocus

onthe“efficiencygap”.Thismeasuresthe

shareofDemocraticandRepublicanvotes

that are “wasted” in each seat. Wasted

votesarethosethatarecastforpartiesin

excessofthemargintheyneedindistricts

theywin,pluseveryvotecastfortheparty

in seats theylose. The measure can be

thoughtofasquantifyingbothhowmany

membersofonepartyare“cracked”into

losingdistrictsandthenumberthatare

“packed”intosaferones(seemap).

InthestatesthatJoeBidenwonin2020,

thereisanefficiencygapofroughlyfive

pointsfavouringDemocrats.Thatmeans

roughly 5%more Republicanvotes than

Democraticonesarewastedacrossthem.

Thatisanincreaseoverthetwo­pointgap

inthose statesunderprevious lines,re­

flectingDemocraticgainsfromthegerry­

mandering,reformandlitigationefforts.

ButinRepublicanstates,theefficiency

gapwillberoughly 14 points(theprecise

numberdependsonwhatthefinalmaps

looklike;ourfigureisbasedontheaverage

acrossthelikeliestplansunderconsider­

ation).Thatisanincreaseoverthe13­point

efficiencygap inthose statesunderthe

2020 congressionalmap.Inotherwords,

themapsinbothDemocraticandRepubli­

canstateshavebecomemorebiasedasa

resultofthisdecade’sredistricting. And

theaverageRepublicanplancreatesmany

morewastedvotesthantheaverageDemo­

craticone(seechart).Instateswithinde­

pendent redistricting commissions, by

contrast,theabsoluteefficiencygapfellby

nearlythreepoints,meaningdistrictswere

lessgerrymandered.Itincreasedbythree

pointselsewhere.

Accordingtoestimatesofdistrictparti­

sanshipproducedbyMrStephanopolous

andsharedwithTheEconomist, moreRe­

publicanstateshavealsofocusedmoreon

ring­fencingtheircurrentadvantage.That

hasmeantshiftingseatswithmildRepub­

licanadvantagesfartherright,insteadof

focusingondrawingDemocratsoutofthe

onestheyhave.InTexas,forexample,the

Republican­dominatedlegislaturepacked

Democrats into five new seats, but re­

moved all but one competitive district.

Andittookthetwonewrepresentatives

the state was apportioned in 2020 and

drewtwonewdistrictswhereRepublicans

areexpectedtowin.Thisalmostensures

thatthestate’s congressionaldelegation

willstayRepublicanforthenextdecade.

Although rosier for Democrats, the

2022 round of redistricting reflects the

arms­racenatureofgerrymandering.“Na­

tionalpartisanfairnessisperfectlycom­

patible”, Mr Stephanopolous says, “with

extremesubnationalpartisanunfairness.”

BiasinRepublicanstatessuchasTexasand

Florida,andinDemocraticstatessuchas

New Mexico andOregon, still produces

manywastedvotesincongressionalraces,

evenifthenumberofseatspartiesareex­

pectedtowinnationallyisroughlyfair.It

isnopuzzlewhoishurtwhenpoliticians

areabletoselecttheirownvoters.n

Sources:N.Stephanopoulos;FiveThirtyEight;TheEconomist

Changeinpartisanbias*ofcongressional

districtplans,2020-22,%points

Deeperblue,darkerred

ME

VT NH

WA ID ND IL MI NY MA

OR NV WY SD IA

MN

OH PA CT RI

CA UT CO MO KY WV MD DE

NM KS TN NC SC DC

AL GA

HI FL

AK

IN

NE VA

OK

TX

AR

NJ

WI

AZ

LA MS

MT

Stateswithonly

onedistrict

30 20 10 5 0 5 10

Statesthathavenotyet

passeda planfor2022†

Nochange

Moreecientrigging ←Dem Rep→

*Measuredbythe“eciencygap”,theshareof

wastedDemocraticversusRepublicanvotes

†Average change in plans under consideration

Short end of the stack

United States, average partisan bias*

in congressional district plans, % points

Sources: N. Stephanopoulos; FiveThirtyEight; The Economist

*Measured by the “efficiency gap”, the share of

wasted Democratic versus Republican votes

Republican

states

Democratic

states

0 5 10 15

22 2