The Economist - USA (2022-02-12)

The Economist February 12th 2022 Middle East & Africa 41

TheAfricanUnion

Older and less wise

I

t was a birthday commemorated in

style.IntheheartofEthiopia’scapital,

AddisAbaba,theseatoftheAfricanUnion

(au),waterfountainseruptedandcham­

pagneglassesclinkedasheadsofstateand

assorteddignitaries tucked into a four­

coursemealtothesoundofsultryjazz.

The partymarked 20 years sincethe

au’sfounding.Itcoincidedwiththeau’s

annualsummit,whichtookplaceonFeb­

ruary5thand6th.AbiyAhmed,theprime

ministerofEthiopia,seizedtheopportuni­

tytothankhisfellowAfricanleaders.They

hadstoodby hisgovernmentthrougha

challengingyear,hesaid,confirmingthe

principleofAfricansolidarityuponwhich

theauwasbuilt.It wasa veiledreferenceto

hiscountry’scivilwar,whichcontinuesto

ragea fewhundredkilometresfromtheci­

ty.Neitherhenortheotherleadersmade

anymentionofhistactics,whichinclude

starvingintosubmissionthe5mpeopleof

Tigray,a rebelliousprovince.Thatwould

haveruinedthefestivemood.

Yetit issuchhorrorsthatkeepthought­

fulAfricanofficialsupatnight.Theau,

whichreplacedits discreditedpredeces­

sor, the Organisation of African Unity

(oau),in2002,issupposedtoresolvethe

continent’s wars, ease theflowof trade

acrossitsbordersandhelpAfricatospeak

with one voice in world affairs. Thabo

Mbeki,a formerpresidentofSouthAfrica

andoneoftheau’sarchitects,promiseda

“continentofdemocracy” inwhich“the

peopleparticipateandtheruleoflawisup­

held”.Twodecadeson,itsrecordismixed.

The African Continental Free Trade

Area,whichtookeffectlastyear,isa genu­

ine(ifincomplete)achievement.Sotooare

someofthe au’s early effortsat peace­

keepingandupholdingdemocracy.Unlike

theoau, whichrefusedtointerfereinthe

affairsofitsmembers,theauhasthepow­

ertointervene,withoutconsent,tostopa

bloodbath.In 2004 itsentAfricantroops

intoDarfurtohalta genocide.Threeyears

lateritestablisheda missiontocombata

jihadistinsurgencyinSomalia.Andforal­

mosttwodecades putscheshad become

muchrarer,thanksinparttotheau’s strict

no­coupspolicy.

Inotherrespects,though,theauhas

cometoresemblethetalkingshopitsup­

planted.Ateachsummitit approvesadmi­

rable­soundingschemes.Toofewgoany­

where. In 2017 Paul Kagame, Rwanda’s

presidentandsoontobechairmanofthe

au, spokeofa “crisisofimplementation”.

AccordingtoBruceByiersoftheEuropean

Centre for Development Policy Manage­

ment,a think­tank,“thegapbetweenthe

numberofcontinentalinitiativesandtheir

entryintoforce”haswidenedovertime.

MrKagamewarnedofa “dysfunctionalor­

ganisation in which member states see

limited value...and our citizenshave no

trust”.AccordingtoAfrobaromoter,a poll­

ingfirm,morethana thirdofAfricansei­

ther think theauisuselessorhave no

opinionofit atall.

Theau’s ambitiontoendconflictonthe

continent(originallyby2020,nowpushed

back to 2030) has rarely seemed more

daunting.InadditiontothewarinEthio­

pia, jihadistssill runamokacrosslarge

partsofSomaliaandmuchoftheSahel.

Mozambiqueisstrugglingtoquella bloody

insurgency in its impoverished north.

EasternCongoseetheswithrebelmilitias.

Coupsarealsomakinga comeback:inthe

pastyeartheauhassuspendedfourcoun­

tries(BurkinaFaso,Guinea,MaliandSu­

dan)becauseofputsches.SolomonDersso

ofAmani, athink­tank in Addis Ababa,

fretsthattherehasbeena “puncturing” of

thedemocraticnormsthattheauhadbeen

tryingtoenforce.

Otherslamentinaction.Theau’s peace

andsecuritycouncil, a 15­memberpanel

modelledontheunSecurityCouncil,has

“lostsomeofitsenergyandzeal”,says  a

formerauofficial.Itchosenotto expel

ChadwhenthesonofIdrissDéby,Chad’s

late dictator, seized power after his father’s

death  last  year.  (The  ausaid  the  takeover

was not a coup.) Pragmatism as well as dip­

lomatic  sensitivities  partly  explain  this:

Chad’s army plays an important role fight­

ing jihadists in the Sahel, and Moussa Faki,

a former Chadian foreign minister, is cur­

rently  chairman  of  the  au‘s  commission,

its  executive  arm.  Nonetheless,  “this  will

constitute  a  precedent,”  warns  Mohamed

Diatta  of  the  Institute  of  Security  Studies,

another think­tank in Addis Ababa. 

The  commission’s  dream  of  becoming

something like the executive branch of the

European  Union  has  faded.  Unlike  the

European Commission, it has no meaning­

ful powers to enforce treaties or craft regu­

lations. “It might be called a commission,

but it is becoming more like a secretariat,”

says a Western diplomat. 

Game of phones

Paul  Williams,  an  academic  at  George

Washington  University  who  has  studied

the  au,  argues  that  African  governments

have also learnt how to game it. “At first the

commission ran the show, and a lot of the

member  states  didn’t  know  how  to  push

back,” he says. “But as they have gained ex­

pertise and knowledge they have begun to

exert themselves much more forcefully.”

Ethiopia  is  a  prime  example.  For  more

than a year it has kiboshed a strong aure­

sponse  to  its  civil  war.  aumediators  dis­

patched  at  the  outset  of  the  conflict  were

soon rebuffed. It took almost another year

for the peace and security council to meet

expressly to discuss the crisis (the fact that

rebels were then threatening to storm Ad­

dis  Ababa  no  doubt  focused  minds).  An­

other  mediation  effort  was  established  in

August.  It  is  led  by  Olusegun  Obasanjo,  a

former  Nigerian  president  who,  happily

for Abiy, chaired the auelectoral observa­

tion  mission  that  endorsed  Ethiopia’s

questionable  polls  last  year.  Almost  six

months  into  the  job,  Mr  Obasanjo  is  only

now hiring staff. 

Even if it were more willing to be firm,

the auhas little by way of sticks or carrots

to  enforce  its  decisions.  Countries,  big  or

small, can thumb their nose at it. When the

peace  and  security  council  voted  to  send

troops to quell violence in Burundi in 2015

the  Burundians  “basically  told  them  to

bugger off”, says Mr Williams. Few are bet­

ter  at  this  than  Ethiopia.  Its  government

can lean on audiplomats who displease it,

or expel them altogether. But Mr Faki, in a

candid  address  on  February  5th,  warned

that  cries  of  sovereignty  were  being  used

by  African  states  as  an  “iron  wall”  against

any  intervention,  and  that  expressions  of

solidarity  were  no  substitute  for  action

when  “neighbouring  houses  [are  set]

ablaze”.  It  was  a  tacit  admissionthatthe

task  of  building  a  union  greater  thanthe

sum of its parts remains unfinished.n

A DDIS ABABA

Africa’s regional club is less effective at 20 than it was at two

Shouting coup in a crowded theatre