10 2GM Wednesday February 16 2022 | the times
News
Nato is drawing up long-term plans to
reinforce the alliance’s southeastern
flank against Russian aggression with
up to four new battlegroups, starting
with a deployment to Romania.
Defence ministers will discuss the
plan in Brussels today in what would be
Nato’s biggest escalation of “force
posture” against Russia in six years.
Moscow will be angered by the pro-
posal, which has yet to be formally
agreed by Nato, because it clashes with
Russian demands for the alliance to
withdraw troops from eastern Europe.
Military planners are examining the
deployment of four multinational battle
groups of 1,000 troops each to Romania
and Bulgaria, possibly followed by
Slovakia and Hungary. There are fears
in the latter two countries that the new
deployments would enrage Moscow.
Jens Stoltenberg, the Nato secretary-
general, described the latest proposals,
on top of recent reinforcements in the
region, as a consequence of the “lasting
impact of the security situation in
Europe” of Russian aggression against
Ukraine.
“Nato defence ministers will address
the need to further increase our defen-
sive posture,” he said. “Nato is not only
responding to the current crisis but we
are also going to consider more long-
term adjustments to our posture in the
east.”
The plans are an extension of the
“enhanced forward presence” deploy-
ment of battle groups in Estonia, Lithu-
ania, Latvia and Poland, which are
backed by tanks, air defences and intel-
ligence and surveillance units.
That move was agreed in 2016 in
response to Russia’s annexation of
Crimea and destabilisation of eastern
Ukraine, with deployments led by Brit-
ain, Canada, Germany and the US.
The new “enhanced presence” would
be led by France in Romania and by a
Bulgarian battle group under Nato
command in Bulgaria, a model that
could be used in Hungary to counter
concerns over new deployments of
foreign troops.
Budapest has so far ruled out “addi-
tional troops on the territory of Hun-
gary”, as has Slovakia. Hungarian and
Slovakian reluctance could lead to the
creation of a larger multinational force
led by France in Romania that would
co-ordinate Nato exercises, bringing
military in and out of the region, with-
out establishing a formal presence in
other countries.
Stoltenberg said that “it will take
some time until we have all the deci-
sions in place” but welcomed “the offer
by France to lead a new Nato battle
group in Romania”, which is likely to be
the first deployment.
Alliance defence ministers are
expected to agree to the first step of
directing military commanders to come
up with a detailed plan for the four
battle groups. A senior Nato diplomat
said: “There will be a tasking that allows
us to escalate but also to de-escalate if
Russia pulls back its military.”
The new battle groups are a longer-
term shift on top of ground and air
reinforcements from Britain, the US —
which is sending 2,000 troops to Roma-
nia — and other Nato allies.
Nato’s increased presence in Bulgaria
and Romania, covering the Black Sea,
would, said diplomats, “show resolve in
the strategically important region” as
well as shoring up Hungary and Slov-
akia, which border Ukraine.
French officials said that designing
the new battle groups and their compo-
sition would take time after agreement
by Nato ministers. “We are basically
aiming for a deadline of a few months,”
an official said.
In his televised address to Americans
from the White House last night, Biden
sought to reassure ordinary Russians
and counter disinformation about
Nato’s intentions.
“The United States and Nato are not
a threat to Russia,” Biden said. “Ukraine
is not threatening Russia. Neither the
US nor Nato have missiles in Ukraine.
We do not, do not have plans to put
them there as well. We are not targeting
the people of Russia. We do not seek to
destabilise Russia.”West risks Russian
anger with plans
to deploy 4,
troops on border
Bruno Waterfield Brussels
Q&A
What would be the
consequences in the
UK of an invasion?
They could include big
rises in petrol and gas
prices, cyberattacks and
a financial hit to
London’s financial
markets from western
sanctions.What would happen to
gas prices?
About 3 per cent of the
UK’s gas supplies come
directly from Russia, but
the cost is dependent
on the international
market, where prices
are likely to soar. In the
short term, consumers
would be protected by
the energy price cap,
but in October, when it
is reviewed again, prices
could rise by 30 per
cent or more.
Businesses are not
protected from rising
prices so energy-
intensive industries
such as steel
manufacturing could
have to shut
temporarily.The rises would feed
into higher inflation as
companies passed on
costs to customers.What would happen to
petrol and diesel?
Britain relies on Russia
for about a fifth of its
diesel supply. Russia is
one of the world’s
largest crude oil
producers, with a
capacity of about 11.
million barrels per day.
Experts predict a rise
in the cost of oil from
$95 a barrel to $120 if
supplies are restricted
or cut off. That would
mean petrol prices
increasing to about
160.5p per litre.Could Russia launch
cyberattacks against
the West?
Yes. Last month the
National Cyber Security
Centre, which is part of
GCHQ, warned British
companies and other
organisations to boost
their cyberresilience. It
highlighted an attack by
Russia on more than 70
Ukrainian government
websites and said it had
long “observed a
pattern of maliciousRussian behaviour in
cyberspace”.Could the crisis lead
to a new influx of
refugees?
Yes. Ben Wallace, the
defence secretary,
warned that an invasion
could lead to “millions”
fleeing Ukraine and said
Europe could face its
biggest refugee crisis
originating on the
continent since the
Second World War.What about British
businesses?
Companies such as BP,
with a 19.75 per cent
share in the Russian
state energy firm
Rosneft, could be hit by
UK sanctions against
Rosneft and any
retaliation by Russia.
Russia is a big
commodities exporter,
supplying about 40 per
cent of the world’s
palladium — vital for the
catalytic converters
used in vehicles to limit
harmful emissions —
and about 30 per cent
of its titanium, crucial
for aircraft manufacture.
Britain has not spelt out
details of any sanctions.
Russian armoured vehicles ostensibly return to base from exercises yesterday inNews Ukraine crisis
POLANDBlack SeaRUSSIALITHUANIALATVIAESTONIACrimeaBELARUSRussian
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200 milesNato battle groups
Orzysz
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Romania
UKAlbania
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CanadaUKRAINEBelgium
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memberTapa
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IcelandKremlin has options
Analysis
B
ritain and the US have
vowed to impose
unprecedented sanctions
on Moscow if there is a
Russian military
incursion into Ukraine, but the
Kremlin would not be short of
options if it chose to retaliate
(Marc Bennetts writes).
Russia supplies about 35 per cent
of the gas used in Europe. Some is
pumped through pipelines that
cross Belarus, Poland and Ukraine,
while the Nord Stream 1 pipeline
goes directly to Germany under
the Baltic Sea.
If tensions erupt into fighting,
Moscow could simply turn off the
gas to western countries. There is
also the possibility that pipelines in
Belarus or Ukraine could be
damaged during hostilities.
Russia is keen, however, to get
its contentious Nord Stream 2,which runs parallel to Nord
Stream 1, online and suspending
gas supplies would occur only if
Moscow felt it had no other option,
analysts say.
Russia’s airspace, which
stretches over ten million square
miles, provides another means of
striking back. If it was closed to
western airlines, as it was during
the Cold War, companies would be
forced to divert flights, adding
hours to journey times, and
increasing costs.
Cargo flights between North
America or Europe and Asia would
be affected. FedEx, the US
transport company, said it was
making contingency plans should
its planes be banned from Russian
airspace.
“So far, Moscow hasn’t
threatened to revoke overflight
rights, but knows it has a
phenomenal weapon at its
disposal,” Elisabeth Braw, a senior