Politics and elections 79If the dominant leadership of the state party is opposed strongly to a leading
contender in the presidential primary in the state, the state party might be
torn apart in the ensuing campaign, deepening personal animosities within
the party and weakening its organisation and morale. The resulting divisions
within the party may have a considerable impact upon the presidential elec-
tion itself, and indeed upon the politics of the presidency for many years. The
danger of such a situation arising may decide contenders for the nomination
not to enter for the primary in a particular state.
Whether or not to enter for the primaries used to be a difficult decision for
the presidential aspirant, although nowadays it has become an indispensable
route to the nomination. The primary trail to the national convention, tak-
ing up the spring months of a presidential election year, is an expensive and
exhausting process. Primary elections follow hard upon each other across the
country: New Hampshire, Virginia, Wisconsin, California, Connecticut. Few
candidates would wish to fight them all, and it becomes a matter of tactics
to decide which to contest. In 1960 John F. Kennedy chose the primaries
as his route to the nomination, unlike the candidates who were more fa-
voured by the professional politicians in the party, and who chose to remain
in the background. Kennedy had to demonstrate his popular appeal, and in
particular to prove that a Catholic could win votes in Protestant areas. His
victory over Hubert Humphrey in West Virginia, a state with an overwhelm-
ingly Protestant population, was a major factor in his successful bid for the
nomination. In the election of 1968 the profound impact of the early primary
victories of Senator Eugene McCarthy upon the political fortunes of Presi-
dent Johnson indicated the importance which the primaries could attain in
the era of televised politics. The Democratic National Convention went on
to accept Hubert Humphrey as its candidate, in spite of the fact that he had
fought few primaries and that 80 per cent of the delegates elected through
primaries were supporters of Eugene McCarthy or of Robert Kennedy, who
had been assassinated. However, at that time only one-third of the delegates
to the convention were chosen by primary elections, and the party machine,
dominated by President Johnson, could still deliver the nomination to the
president’s candidate. By 1980 the situation had changed dramatically. Sev-
enty per cent of the delegates to the Democratic Convention were elected
via the primary route, and the possibility of manipulating the convention was
correspondingly reduced. In subsequent elections the proportion of delegates
chosen through primary elections fluctuated, but in 1996 over 85 per cent
of the delegates to both the Democratic and Republican Conventions were
selected through the primary route, emphasising that nowadays entering the
primaries, and fighting almost all of them, is no longer a matter of choice for
the aspiring presidential candidate; it is essential.
The primary election campaign of 1992 illustrates very well the process
of presidential candidate selection in an age of weak political parties and
the power of television. There were five major candidates for the Demo-