The Economist - UK (2022-02-19)

24 Britain TheEconomistFebruary19th 2022

andunityenforcedbysuspending 21 Euro­

philemps.Attheelectionthatfollowed,it

wonitslargestmajorityin 30 years.With

newnorthernvoterscamea newblue­col­

lardoctrine.Public­sectorinvestmentwas

crankeduptothehighestlevelsincethe

1970s,andliberalinstitutionssuchasthe

bbcanduniversitieslinedupfora kicking.

By 2024 itwillbe 106 yearssincethegrant­

ingofuniversalmalesuffrage;theTories

willhavebeeninofficefor68%ofthem.At

thenextelectiontheywillbeseekingan

unprecedentedfifthterminoffice.

Yetthemachineforgovernmentthat

Gambledescribedismisfiring.Afterthree

leaders,fourgeneralelectionsanda trau­

maticstruggleoverBrexit,ideologicaldif­

ferences between mps have widened,

grievancesfesteredandrebellionsbecome

a habit.Increasingly,ministersfindprot­

estingagainstunseenenemiespreferable

todeliveringpolicy.Theresultisnottotal

paralysis: 44 government bills received

royalassentinthelastsessionofparlia­

ment,includingmeasuresessentialforlife

outsidetheeu. Buttheparty’scapacityto

digestdifferencesandcoalescearounda

reformistprogrammehasdegraded.

It’sa realmeanteam

ThetwinthreatsoffailingtodeliverBrexit

andlosingtoMrCorbyn,whichralliedthe

party around Mr Johnson, have disap­

peared.NoTorympwantstoenteropposi­

tion,buta Labourgovernmentnolonger

appearsto themthecatastropheitonce

did.SirKeirhasjunkedMrCorbyn’ssocial­

istplatform,andBrexitissecure.Whisper

it, says one senior Tory, but theunion

probablywouldbesafeunderSirKeirtoo.

Instabilityrunsfromthetop.“Ican’t

thinkofanyNumberTenwhichhasim­

plodedatthisspeed,”saysa formeraide.

Successfulprimeministerskeeptopaides

foruptoa decade;MrJohnsonisnowbeing

assistedby hisfourthchief ofstaffand

fourthdirectorofcommunicationssince

2019.Aninterimchiefoperatingofficerhas

beeninstalledinDowningStreet;White­

hall­watcherssuspecta permanentcandi­

datehasbeenimpossibletofind.

Ministershavequitthegovernmentata

striking rate. The first two years of Mr

Johnson’sadministrationsawmoreresig­

nationsoutsideofreshufflesthaninany

since 1979 (see chart2).Someministers

foundittooradical:MrJohnson’sruthless

methodsfor deliveringBrexit sparkeda

waveofexits.Forothers,ithasnotbeen

radicalenough.JohnnyMercerresignedas

a defenceministeroverthegovernment’s

inabilitytohalttheprosecutionoftroops

whohadservedinNorthernIreland.Lord

Frost,thechiefBrexitnegotiator,quitla­

mentingMrJohnson’sfailuretocreatea

low­tax,light­regulationeconomy.Sleaze

hastakena toll.DouglasRoss,a Scotland

minister,quitin 2020 inprotestatbreach­

esofcovidlockdownsbyDominicCum­

mings,then MrJohnson’s chiefadviser.

LordAgnew, who oversawWhitehall re­

form,resignedoverlaxchecksonfraud.

Conservativemps havebeenstrikingly

rebellious,notesAliceLillyoftheInstitute

forGovernment,a think­tank.Some44%

rebelledagainstthewhipatleastoncein

theover 400 parliamentarydivisionssince

thegeneralelection(seechart3).Ahard

coreof 32 mps hasdonesomorethanten

times.Bycontrast,inthe2015­16session,

underDavidCameron,18%ofthepartyre­

belled across 267 divisions. Under Mrs

May, rebellions reflected a single deep

cleavage overBrexit.UnderMrJohnson,

theyhavebeenmorevaried,overevery­

thingfromfarmstandardsandbuilding

codestofreeschoolmealsandruleson

tradewithChina.

Theyhavebeendrivenbyformerminis­

ters,whoregardMrJohnson’soperationas

amateurishandhavenointerestinpromo­

tion.MrsMay ledarebellionofformer

ministersagainstcuttingoverseasaid.But

theintakeof2019,builtinMrJohnson’s

populistimage,hasalsoprovedunruly.In

January one of its members, Christian

Wakeford, defected to Labour. Louie

French won a by­election in December

2021,andrebelledjusttwoweekslater.

MeanwhiletheConservativeshaveBal­

kanisedintogingergroupsthatlookmore

likethefactionalismofthefarleft.The

EuropeanResearchGroupofultra­Brexi­

teers,formedin1993,demonstratedhowa

smallnumberofmps,organisedthrough

an internalsystemofofficers, briefings

andwhips,couldforcethegovernmentto

changecourse.Ithasanalphabetsoupof

imitators:theCovidRecoveryGroup(lock­

downcritics);ChinaResearchGroup(Sino­

sceptics);NorthernResearchGroup(cash­

hungrymps forpoortowns)andCommon

SenseGroup(anti­wokewarriors).Oppo­

nentsononeissuebecomealliesonthe

next.AsplithasopenedwiththeScottish

Conservatives:itsmembersoftheScottish

ParliamentoverwhelminglywantMrJohn­

sontoresignoverPartygate.

WhatsApphashelpedrebelstoorgan­

ise,whilesocial­mediacampaignsandthe

onlinepublicationofvotingrecordsheap

pressureonmps todissent.ThesizeofMr

Johnson’smajorityisa problem,reckons

PhilipCowley,a politicalscientistatQueen

Mary University of London: it is large

enoughtobreedcomplacencyatthetop,

butsmallenoughtobewipedoutwitha

moderaterebeleffort.

Toriesnolongeragreeonthemostbasic

rulesofpolitics,suchaswhetherchecks

andbalancesarea vitalpartofa democrat­

icsystemoranunacceptablerestrainton

anelectedgovernment.mps splitoverMr

Johnson’sabortedplanlastNovemberto

exonerateanally,OwenPaterson,whohad

beenfoundguiltybya parliamentarycom­

mitteeofunethicallobbying.Thereisa

culturalriftbetweenthosewhoprayedfor

HillaryClintonandthosewhocheeredfor

DonaldTrump.MrJohnson’smisleading

claimthatSirKeir,inhisformerroleasdi­

rectorofpublicprosecutions,hadfailedto

prosecuteJimmySavile,a notoriouspae­

dophile,delightedonlypartoftheparty.

Theenvironmentisbecominganother

causeofcleavage.BackbenchersintheNet

ZeroScrutinyGrouparecriticalofthecost

tohouseholdsofclimate­changemitiga­

tion.LordFrostiscampaigningtoendthe

moratoriumonshale­gasexploration.He

Longtimecoming

Britain,“whowouldmakethemost

capableprimeminister?”%responding

Source:Ipsos

1

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

2005 10 15 2220

Starmer

Johnson

Corbyn

May

Brown Miliband

Cameron

Melting down

Britain, ministerial resignations

By premiership

Source:InstituteforGovernment

2

40

30

20

10

0

01234 5 678 9 10 11

Years in government

Johnson

May

Cameron

Brown

Blair

Major

Thatcher

Repeat offenders

Britain, rebellious votes* cast by Conservative MPs

Dec2019-Feb 2022

Source:InstituteforGovernment

*Votesinoppositiontoprimeministerorchiefwhip



30

25

20

15

10

5

0

NumberofConservativeMPs

365300250200150100501

Number of votes