52 Asia The Economist February 19th 2022
W
hen donald trumppulled Amer
ica out of the 12country Trans
Pacific Partnership (tpp) five years ago,
analysts and economists busied them
selves writing obituaries for what was to
have been the world’s biggest freetrade
deal. The United States accounted for
nearly twothirds of the incipient bloc’s
gdp, and had done most of the diplomat
ic heavy lifting.
The obituaries were premature. Led
by Japan, the remaining 11 members
regrouped and in late 2018 got going as
the Comprehensive and Progressive
TransPacific Partnership (cptpp). With
Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Malay
sia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singa
pore and Vietnam as members, the
grouping still accounts for nearly one
sixth of global gdp. Though the Regional
and Comprehensive Economic Part
nership (rcep), which came into effect
this year, is bigger, it holds to much
lower standards. Signatories to rcep
have 20 years to eliminate 90% of their
tariffs to each other. cptppinsists, with a
few exceptions, on zero tariffs from the
start. Rules on openness to investment,
environmental standards and protection
of intellectual property make it one of
the world’s most rigorous trade pacts.
More countries now want in. First is
Britain, seeking to persuade itself and
others of global ambitions after Brexit.
Admittedly, Britain’s control of the Pit
cairn Islands (population: 55) makes its
territorial credentials as a Pacific power
look skimpy. Still, adding the world’s
fifthbiggest economy would greatly
boost cptpp’s size.
Not as much, though, as would add
ing the secondbiggest. China submitted
its application in September—a revealing
irony given that America had once
viewed the tppas a counterweight to itsrise. China sits at the heart of global sup
ply chains, which is why some cptpp
members, wishing to deepen trade and
investment ties with it, support the bid.
That prospect discomfits those suspi
cious of Chinese motives. Its economic
system seems incompatible with parts of
the cptpp, notably rules curtailing state
owned enterprises. It pursues mercantilist
policies in some sectors. It either shuts
out foreign tech firms or takes intellectual
property from them. And it is a bully: it is
boycotting much trade with Australia for
petty reasons. In Australia, Canada and
Japan, its application is unwelcome.
That is in contrast to the application by
Taiwan, submitted six days after China’s.
Asia’s open societies share affinities with
democratic Taiwan. And from a trade
perspective, the country’s chipmakers are
crucial to global tech.
China is vehemently opposed to Tai
wan’s joining. It claims the island as its
own and reserves the right to invade. How
to deal with the two applications is a hot
potato that cptpprepresentatives at
tempted to handle as they met underSingaporean auspices as The Economist
went to press (Ecuador’s bid for member
ship is less controversial). Singaporean
officials are likely to advise their coun
terparts in China to sort out its differ
ences with Japan and Australia first.
Yet kicking the potato down the road
cannot work for ever. In Asia, trade
trumps everything, and China’s clout
suggests that sooner or later it will get its
way. Already, some of the region’s offi
cials are starting to claim that admitting
China would be a way to curb its errant
trade practices.
The trouble with that argument is
that, even without new members, cptpp
lacks enforcement teeth. Deborah Elms
of the Asian Trade Centre in Singapore,
which works with governments and
companies to fashion better trade deals,
argues that the pact is weak when it
comes to implementation. No one is
really monitoring Vietnam’s obligations
to meet cptppstandards on state en
terprises, ecommerce and crossborder
data flows. Nor has the deal’s dispute
settlement mechanism ever been used—
Asian governments are not in the habit
of suing each other. Meanwhile, the
brevity of the pact’s language on acces
sion suggests the founding members
gave insufficient thought to admitting
new ones—and South Korea, a tech and
industrial giant, also wants to join.
Both political and technical challeng
es underscore the cptpp’s institutional
shortcomings. Despite the complexity of
its provisions, Ms Elms points out, few
governments have officials working on
the pact fulltime. More striking, it lacks
even a secretariat. Some of its supporters
argue that cptppcan take the lead from
the wtoas the world’s chief promoter of
free trade. If it lacks even an office, that
remains a bold assertion.Asia’s premier trade deal is growing, but first it must matureBanyan Littoral, but not serious enough
became a member of the rubberstamp
parliament in 2016. He rose swiftly to be
come a regional governor, before being
propelled into the cabinet as minister for
industry in 2020. Last year he was elevated
to the position of deputy prime minister.
Yet it was not until September that he
gained a crucial qualification by turning
40, the minimum age for a president.
Serdar will have a full inbox once he
takes over. The economy is in grim shape.
Food shortages plague the country. The
market value of the currency is six times
lower than the official rate. And it is overreliant on gas for exports and China for
trade. The heir apparent may struggle in
less obvious ways, too. His father is a flam
boyant leader, known for macho stunts
that prop up his cult of personality. By con
trast, Serdar is a wooden speaker who dis
likes being in the public eye.
Helpfully, the outgoing president is not
planning to retreat to a life of fishing and
horsebreeding. He will retain the chair
manship of the upper house of parliament.
Yet the reason for his retirement remains
unclear; the only explanation offered was
that he had lived longer than the ProphetMuhammad (Turkmenistan is mostly
Muslim). The true cause is probably ailing
health: a long disappearance from public
view in 2019 sparked speculation that he
was being treated for a serious condition.
The idea may be to allow Serdar time to
consolidate power while his father is still
around to protect him. In any case, the
president has made it clear that the change
represents continuity rather than reform.
Or as he put it in his farewell speech, quot
ing a Turkmen proverb, “The traditions of
the fathers are priceless, and whoever
loves them loves the motherland!”n