The Economist - UK (2022-02-19)

The Economist February 19th 2022 Science&technology 73

Potter.  Mr  Musk  has  talked  of  eventually
building  a  fleet  of  Starships.  If  each  were
indeed launching several times a day, that
would give SpaceX the ability to lug a mil­
lion  tonnes  of  stuff  into  orbit  each  year.
BryceTech reckons that, in 2021, the world
managed  750  tonnes.  What  you  might  do
with all that capacity (other than supplying
a future Mars colony) is another question. 
Jonathan  McDowell,  an  astrophysicist
and  rocket  enthusiast  at  the  Harvard­
Smithsonian  Centre  for  Astrophysics,
notes that Starship’s colossal size might go
unused  in  the  commercial­satellite  mar­
ket,  at  least  for  the  foreseeable  future.
“There  just  isn’t  currently  a  market  for
large  numbers  of  enormous  payloads,”  he
says. SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy, with a payload
capacity of 64 tonnes, is the most powerful
rocket currently flying. Its first launch was
in 2018, but it has only flown twice since. 
The  satellite  industry  might  adapt,  in
time.  In  any  case,  Mr  Musk  has  indicated
that Starship, thanks to its cheapness, will
replace  SpaceX’s  smaller  Falcon  rockets,
which  already  have  a  market  share  of
around 50%. If he sticks to that plan, then
early  commercial  launches  of  Starship
could fly with their holds mostly empty. 

Congenital optimist
One  medium­term  option  might  be  space
tourism,  says  Mr  Potter.  Existing  rockets
from Blue Origin or Virgin Galactic can al­
ready  carry  a  handful  of  thrillseekers  into
space—though not to orbit. Starship could
take perhaps 100 people on an orbital trip,
or  a  smaller  number  even  further  and  in
greater luxury. 
On  February  14th  Jared  Isaacman,  an
American  billionaire  who  has  already
flown  into  orbit  with  SpaceX  announced
that  he  had  ordered  three  further  flights
from  the  firm.  The  first  two  will  use
SpaceX’s  existing  Falcon  rockets—but  the
third, said Mr Isaacman, should mark Star­
ship’s first crewed flight. Meanwhile Yusa­
ku  Maezawa,  a  Japanese  billionaire,  has
contracted  with  SpaceX  to  send  himself
and up to a dozen companions on a six­day
jaunt around the Moon and back. 
Jennifer  Heldmann,  a  planetary  scien­
tist  at  nasa’s  Ames  Research  Centre  who
has  written  a  paper  about  what  Starship
could do for science, is more excited. Star­
ship’s  upper  stage  is  designed  to  be  refu­
elled in orbit, with extra fuel brought up in
the cargo bay of other Starships. A full refill
would require several extra flights. But the
pay­off,  says  Dr  Heldmann,  would  be  the
ability to deposit 100 tonnes or more of car­
go on the surface of almost any body in the
solar  system.  (The  Perseverancerover  that
landed on Mars last year had a total mass,
with its lander, of about four tonnes.) 
Cheap  launches  might  not  be  immedi­
ately  revolutionary.  Science  missions  are
expensive, and even pricey launches make

up  only  a  small  chunk  of  the  overall  bud­

get. But Dr Heldmann points out that Star­

ship  would  enable  much  more  ambitious

missions, getting scientists more bang for

their buck. One option, she says, would be

to  fly  larger  quantities  of  cheaper  kit.  “All

that payload capacity means you could use

off­the­shelf components rather than hav­

ing  to  custom­make  and  miniaturise

things,” she says. 

Another  option  would  simply  be  to  go

big.  Perseverance,  which  cost  $2.7bn,  car­

ries a drill that can excavate a few inches of

Martian  regolith.  Starship,  says  Dr  Held­

mann,  could  carry  a  full­sized  drilling  rig

that could bore kilometres deep. 

And it could also open up access to the

outer planets, which have historically been

tricky to send missions to. In recent years

the  watery  moons  of  Saturn  and  Jupiter

have  overtaken  Mars  as  the  most  promis­

ing  places  to  search  for  alien  life.  One

group of scientists has drawn up a plan to

use Starship to explore Neptune, which has

been visited just once before, in 1989, when

the  American  Voyager 2 probe  zoomed  by

on  its  way  out  of  the  solar  system.  Such  a

space  craft  could  weigh  tens  of  tonnes,

compared with just 722kg for Voyager 2.

America’s  government  is  another  po­

tential  customer.  The  country’s  newly

minted  Space  Force  is  looking  into  Star­

ship  for  its  Rocket  Cargo  programme,

which  is  designed  to  explore  whether  the

rocket could be used to deliver equipment

rapidly  to  anywhere  on  the  planet.  And

with  space  a  vital  part  of  warfighting,

America’s  armed  forces  would  welcome

the  ability  to  replenish  shot­down  satel­

lites quickly and cheaply.

nasa,  meanwhile,  has  chosen  a  modi­

fied version of Starship’s upper stage to fer­

ry astronauts to the lunar surface as part of

its ambitious Artemis programme. Most of

Artemis  is  designed  to  use  the  Space

Launch System (sls), another jumbo­sized

rocketthatnasaisdevelopingasa succes­

sortotheSpaceShuttle.Buttheslshasa

lowercargocapacitythanStarshipdoes,

anda launchcostprojectedat$2bna time.

IfStarshipworks,nasacouldcomeunder

pressuretoscraptheslsentirely.

SpaceX,foritspart,knowsexactlywhat

itwantstodowithStarship,evenbeforeit

starts thinking about Mars. Its Starlink

projectaimstouseswarmsofthousandsof

low­flying satellitesto beamhigh­speed

internetto anywhereonEarth’s surface.

GwynneShotwell, SpaceX’schief execu­

tive, hasnoted thattheglobaltelecom­

munications market is worth perhaps

$1trna year.SpaceXthinksit mightreason­

ablyaspiretoabout3­4%ofit.

Because low­flying satellites can see

onlya smallportionoftheEarth’ssurface,

Starlink requires enormous numbers of

them.Thefirmalreadyhasabout1,655in

orbit,abouta thirdofthetotalnumberof

active satellites in space. It has permission

from  American  regulators  to  fly  12,000,

and is trying to obtain a licence for 30,000. 

But first, SpaceX has to make the rocket

work. In his press conference Mr Musk was

at pains to play down the probability of the

orbital  test—when  it  happens—going

smoothly. Even if it did, plenty more test­

ing  would  be  needed  before  the  rocket

would be ready to fly real cargo.

Regulatory battles may be looming, too.

The firm’s Boca Chica facility was built on

the  understanding  that  it  would  be  used

for the Falcon Heavy, a much smaller rock­

et  than  Starship.  Explosions  from  failed

flight  tests  have  scattered  debris  over  a

wide area, says Mr Manley, while road clo­

sures annoy locals. Environmental regula­

tors  are  reportedly  unhappy,  and  pushing

for  a  full  review  of  the  firm’s  licence.  Mr

Musk  has  said  that,  in  the  worst  case  sce­

nario, SpaceX would have to move Starship

development to Cape Canaveral in Florida,

which would delay things for months.

Nervous energy

Even then, Starship’s capabilities could go

unused.  The  true  size  of  the  market  for

Starlink  remains  unknown.  As  for  his

grandest ambition, it is not at all clear how

many  people  would  volunteer  to  live  on

Mars. The sales pitch, said Mr Musk, is that

“it’s going to be cramped, dangerous, diffi­

cult, very hard work [and] you might die.”

Despite the technical challenges ahead,

it  would  take  a  bold  person  to  bet  against

SpaceX.  In  2008,  after  the  first  three

launches  of  its  tiny  Falcon  1  rocket  had

failed, the firm almost went under. But the

fourth  launch  worked.  The  Falcon  9’s  im­

pressive  failure­free  run  was  preceded  by

more than a dozen unsuccessful attempts

to land its first stage. Mr Musk, for his part,

is  confident.  “[Starship]  will  work,”  he

said.  “There’ll  beafewbumps  along  the

road, but it’ll work.”n

But who’s counting?

SpaceX valuation, $bn

Sources:PitchBook;TheEconomist *International Space Station

2

100

80

60

40

20

0

052002 10 15 22

Funding rounds and grants

FirstcrewedmissiontoISS*

FirstbatchofStarlinksatelliteslaunched

FalconHeavyfirstlaunch

Firstsuccessfullanding

ofFalcon9 firststage

CargoflightstoISS*begin

Firstorbital

flightofFalcon

FirstNASA

development

contract

20

First successful Starship test landing