10 Monday February 21 2022 | the times
News
Economic sanctions may not deter
President Putin from invading Ukraine
because he is “thinking illogically”,
Boris Johnson said yesterday.
The prime minister said that “all the
evidence” suggested the Russian leader
had decided to invade Ukraine and
there were signs his plan to attack had
“already in some senses begun”.
He warned that an assault risked
starting the biggest war in Europe since
the Second World War, leading to a
“bloody and protracted conflict”. Brit-
ish intelligence chiefs have warned that
a multi-pronged Russian invasion
could begin any day, possibly culminat-
ing in a “lightning war” against Kyiv.
Johnson warned that even if the in-
vasion were initially successful, the
West must ensure that it exerts enough
economic pressure on Moscow to show
other rogue states that the aggression
brings a high cost.
“If he goes ahead and invades a sov-
ereign European country, if he imposes
maximum violence on Ukraine and
these at least temporarily succeed, then
that will be seen around the world,”
Johnson told the Sunday Morning show
on BBC1. “And I’m afraid people will
draw the false conclusion that might is
right and that aggression pays.”
British intelligence agrees with the
White House that Putin has already is-
sued a “go” order to launch his war plan.
James Cleverly, the Europe minister,
said yesterday that a conflict could lead
to five million refugees fleeing Ukraine
to neighbouring European countries.
“These things are kind of almost
inevitable,” he told Times Radio. “The
way they can be avoided, of course, is by
this conflict not to happen. And that’s
what we’re pushing for.”
Johnson warned Putin yesterday of
the human cost that countries on both
sides of the conflict would suffer. He
said that the Russian president would
be wrong to assume that an attack on
Ukraine would weaken Nato.
“People need to understand the sheer
cost in human life that that could entail,
not just for Ukrainians but also for the
Russians and for young Russians,” he
said. “What I would say to Putin is now
is the moment to pull back, now is the
moment to engage in a serious diplo-
matic conversation. If he thinks he’s
going to get less Nato as a result of this,
he’s totally wrong, he’s going to get
more Nato.”
He admitted that because Ukraine
was not a Nato member, the West was
limited in its options to deter Putin.
While the British military had helped
train 22,000 Ukrainian troops and
given them military equipment, the
West had to resort to sanctions.
Johnson said it was unfair of Presi-
dent Zelensky of Ukraine to accuse the
West of “appeasement” in its failure to
offer his country enough military
support. But he echoed Zelensky’s
warning that economic sanctions
would not be enough to deter Putin.
Johnson told Sophie Raworth on the
BBC show: “That [sanctions] may not
be enough on its own. It will be very
damaging and difficult but it may not be
enough to deter an irrational actor.
“We have to accept at the moment
that Vladimir Putin is possibly thinking
illogically about this and doesn’t see the
disaster ahead. People forget that
Ukraine has already been engaged in
conflict with Russians or Russian sepa-
ratists.. for eight years now.”
The crisis in Ukraine has brought
greater scrutiny on government at-
tempts to limit the Kremlin’s influence
in Britain through businessmen and
women linked to Putin operating in
London. It closed the Tier 1 visa scheme
last week that allowed hundreds of
Russians residence in the UK in return
for millions of pounds of investment.
The government is also reforming
the role of Companies House and im-
proving transparency over companies
and property. Johnson said that this
would “open up the Russian doll of
property ownership”.
It has emerged, however, that since
he took office in July 2019, one of the
main instruments at his disposal to
target Russians accused of corruption
has not been used once. Unexplained
wealth orders, which allow officials to
confiscate property without proving
criminality, have been used only five
times since they were introduced in the
Criminal Finances Act 2017.
Cleverly admitted that he did not
know how many times they had been
used when asked on the Trevor Phillips
on Sunday show on Sky news yesterday.
Zelensky accused the West at the
Munich security conference of appeas-
ing Russia. He called for a ceasefire
after speaking to President Macron,
who held last-ditch talks with Putin.
Jean-Yves Le Drian, the French for-
eign minister, will meet Sergei Lavrov,
his Russian counterpart, today.
Antony Blinken, the US secretary of
state, also accepted an invitation for a
meeting with Lavrov this week.
“Everything suggests... that we are
on the brink of an invasion,” he said.
“Until the tanks are rolling... we will
use every opportunity to see if diplo-
macy can dissuade President Putin.”
Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine’s foreign
minister, urged Nato leaders not to wait
until Russia invaded to impose sanc-
tions. “Russia has to be stopped right
now,” he said. “We see how events are
unfolding.”Russia and Cuba have promised to
deepen their ties, as the conflict in
Ukraine revitalises old Cold War ties in
Latin America.
Last week Yuri Borisov, Russia’s
deputy prime minister, visited Havana
on a visit ostensibly designed to explore
collaboration in transport, energy,
industry and banking.
Afterwards, the Cuban government
expressed its firm support for Russia
against what it described as “the unilat-
eral and unjust sanctions imposed by
the West on the Eurasian country and
against the expansion of the North
Atlantic Treaty Organisation towards
the Russian borders”.
Last month Sergei Ryabkov, Russia’s
deputy foreign minister, said that he
could “neither confirm nor exclude”
the possibility of a Russian military de-
ployment to Cuba. The comments were
later dismissed as “bluster” by the US
national security adviser, Jake Sullivan.
Nevertheless, Cuba and Russia haveAmerican fleet in the Med
boosted by aircraft carrier
Michael EvansCuba support
Stephen Gibbs CaracasThe US has amassed more than 20 war-
ships in the Mediterranean to counter
an unprecedented build-up of Russian
maritime firepower.
USS Harry S Truman, an aircraft
carrier, has been told to stay in the
Mediterranean “for the foreseeable
future” and there are about double the
number of warships patrolling the area.
Heightened tension means that any
misunderstanding between American
and Russian warships could have more
serious consequences than usual,
Admiral Mike Gilday, US chief of naval
operations, warned. “Given the current
situation, the chance for miscalculation
is greater,” he said.
USS Harry S Truman was diverted
from its Pacific Ocean deployment to
the Mediterranean some weeks ago.
About a dozen destroyers, including
four recently sent from US bases, areoperating in the area, alongside at least
one cruiser and a nuclear-powered
attack submarine.
The reinforcements have coincided
with a steady increase in American
fighter aircraft and bombers in Poland,
Romania, the Baltics, Germany and
Britain.
Up to 60 US aircraft have been
deployed to provide combat air power
to deter Russia from carrying out any
hostile missions against Nato allies.
There are sixteen US F-15s carrying
out patrols from Lask in Poland, plus
eight F-16s at Fetesti in Romania and
six F-15s at Amari in Estonia.
America usually has 220 aircraft in
Europe, but more of these are now in
the allied nations closest to Russia.
Much of the Russian air power in the
region is in Belarus, whose border with
Ukraine is 41 miles from Kyiv, the capi-
tal. Russian fighter aircraft include Su-
35S Flankers and Su-25SM Frogfoots.News Ukraine crisis
Johnson doubts sanctions alone
Matt Dathan Home Affairs Editor
Catherine Philp Kyiv Thousands of people
in the Ukrainian city
of Odessa marched
in a show of unity
yesterday, eight
years after more
than a hundred
protesters were
killed during the
Maidan revolution
Intelligence agencies in the West
have been working at full stretch
to keep up with the disinformation
being spread by Russia to
undermine Nato’s assessments of
its plans to invade Ukraine.
“It’s a complicated area,” a US
intelligence source said. “It’s
always difficult to get into the
mind of an autocrat. We’re all
intensely watching and working.”
The US, British and European
intelligence agencies have learnt
to decipher Putin’s moves by
studying his aggression in Georgia,
Crimea and eastern Ukraine over
the past 14 years. The agencies
refer to Putin’s “playbook” — how
he has acted and reacted. They
have observed a familiar pattern
to the way he has confronted the
western alliance over the years.
This has helped them to gauge
his next steps and to pre-empt
them by persuading their political
leaders to make them public.
Traditionally, the agencies are
unwilling to release secret
intelligence. But this time it is
different. The accumulation of
intelligence before the 2003
invasion of Iraq was “to provide
justification for war”. The goal
now is to prevent one.
The Russians have a word for
barefaced lies: vranyo. The CIA,
MI6 and other agencies believe
they can see Putin’s vranyo.Spies study
Kremlin lies
Michael Evans