David and Goliath: Underdogs, Misfits, and the Art of Battling Giants

The impacts of Three Strikes on
crime in California and throughout the
United States are analyzed using
cross-sectional time series analysis
of state-level data from 1986 to 2005.
The model measures both deterrence
and incapacitation effects, controlling
for preexisting crime trends and
economic, demographic, and policy
factors. Despite limited use outside
California, the presence of a Three
Strikes law appears to be associated
with slightly but significantly faster
rates of decline in robbery, burglary,
larceny, and motor vehicle theft
nationwide. Three Strikes also is
associated with slower declines in