“The trade war is having a huge impact on the
Chinese economy,” Edward Moya of OANDA said
in a report. “As trade negotiations struggle for
meaningful progress, we are probably not near
the bottom for China’s economy.”
Chinese leaders have stepped up spending and
bank lending to keep growth within this year’s
official target range of 6% to 6.5% and avert
politically dangerous job losses. But they face an
avalanche of unexpectedly bad news including
plunging auto sales.
In the second half of the year, “the external
environment may still be more complicated,”
said a government spokesman, Mao Shengyong,
at a news conference.
Quarterly growth was the lowest since China
began reporting such data in 1993, according to
an employee of the press office of the National
Bureau of Statistics, Dong Hui.
In 2009, the NBS reported growth of 6.1% for the
first three months of that year. However, Dong
said that later was revised up to 6.4%.
Jittery consumers are putting off major
purchases, depressing demand for autos, home
appliances and other goods.
“I don’t think the country’s economy is as good
as it looks,” said Peng Tao, a 26-year-old delivery
courier who said he makes 5,000-6,000 yuan
($750-$870) a month.
“China has been surely hurt more in the trade
war,” said Peng. “I am not very happy about
job prospects because there just aren’t many
opportunities out there.”
The International Monetary Fund and private
sector economists have cut this year’s Chinese
growth forecast to as low as 6.2%, a further
marked decline after last year’s three-decade
low of 6.6%.
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