Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics: Applied Econometrics

Joe Cardinale and Larry W. Taylor 333

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12

10

8

6

4

2

0

(Percent)

Solid boxes represent NBER dated business cycle recessions

Diagonal boxes represent recessions (upswings) in the unemployment rate

Figure 7.3 US civilian unemployment rate
Note: Unemployment data are from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and business cycle dates are from
the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Table 7.1 Unemployment rate cycle dates: 1948–2006

Reference dates Duration in months

Peak Trough Contraction Expansion Cycle

Previous Trough from Peak from

Peak to trough to previous previous

trough this peak trough peak

Oct 1949 June 1953 44 −− −

Sep 1954 Mar 1957 30 15 45 59

Jul 1958 Feb 1960 19 16 35 46

May 1961 May 1969 96 15 111 34

Aug 1971 Oct 1973 26 27 53 123

May 1975 May 1979 48 19 67 45

Jul 1980 Jul 1981 12 14 26 62

Dec 1982 Mar 1989 75 17 92 29

Jun 1992 Apr 2000 94 39 133 114

Jun 2003 Jun 2006 36 38 74 132

Summary statistics

No. of phases 10 (9) 9 (10)

Average length 48.0 (59.1) 22.2 (10.4)

Standard deviation 30.3 (38.0) 10.0 (3.3)

Note:NBER business cycle summary statistics are in parentheses. Unemployment contractions are

paired with business cycle expansions, and unemployment expansions are paired with business

cycle contractions.