348 Economic Cycles
Shapiro, S.S. and M.B. Wilk (1972) An analysis of variance test for the exponential
distribution (complete samples).Technometrics 14 , 335–70.
Sichel, D.E. (1991) Business cycle duration dependence: a nonparametric approach.Review
of Economics and Statistics 73 , 254–60.
Sichel, D.E. (1994) Inventories and the three phases of the business cycle.Journal of Business
and Economic Statistics 12 , 269–77.
Spanos, A. (1995) On theory testing in econometrics: modelling with nonexperimental
data.Journal of Econometrics 67 , 189–226.
Spanos, A. (2006) Econometrics in retrospect and prospect. In T.C. Mills and K. Patterson
(eds.),Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics, Volume 1: Econometric Theory, pp. 3–58. New
York: Palgrave Macmillan.
Stock, J.H. and M.W. Watson (1989) New indexes of leading and coincidental economic
indicators. In O. Blanchard and S. Fisher (eds.),NBER Macroeconomics Annual – 1989,
pp. 351–94. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press.
Stock, J.H. and M.W. Watson (1991) A probability model of coincident economic indi-
cators. In K Lahiri and G.H. Moore (eds.),Leading Economic Indicators: New Approaches
and Forecasting Records.Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Stock, J.H. and M.W. Watson (2003) Has the business cycle changed? Evidence and
explanations. Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City symposium,
“Monetary Policy and Uncertainty,” August, pp. 28–30.
Taylor, L.W. (2007) Estimating duration dependence in militarized interstate disputes.
Journal of Applied Statistics 34 , pp. 423–41.
Teräsvirta, T. (2006) Univariate nonlinear time series models. In T.C. Mills and K. Patterson
(eds.),Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics, Volume 1: Econometric Theory, pp. 396–424. New
York: Palgrave Macmillan.
Thompson, W.A., Jr. (1977) On the treatment of grouped observations in life studies.
Biometrics 33 , pp. 463–70.
Vahid, F. (2006) Common cycles. In T.C. Mills and K. Patterson (eds.),Palgrave Handbook of
Econometrics, Volume 1: Econometric Theory,pp. 610–30. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.
Watson, M.W. (1994) Business-cycle durations and postwar stabilization of the US
Economy.American Economic Review 84 , 24–46.
White, H. (1984)Asymptotic Theory for Econometricians. New York: Academic Press, Inc.
Zarnowitz, V. and A. Ozyildirim (2006) Time series decomposition and measurement of
business cycles, trends and growth cycles,Journal of Monetary Economics 53 , 1717–39.
Zorn, C.J. (2000) Modeling duration dependence.Political Analysis 8 , 367–80.
Zuehlke, T.W. (2003) Business cycle duration dependence reconsidered. Journal of
Business and Economic Statistics 21 , 564–69.