Games and Guardians 157all the things that could go wrong and then the
reasons you hope those things will not happen –
these will be your assumptions.)
When you have written down your assumptions, group
them from two points of view.
First, how important is each to the success of your
plan?
Some may be essential. In other words, if you are
wrong, your plan will fail.
Others will be dispensable – you can work around them
if they turn out to be mistaken.
Give each idea a score from one to ten. Ten means they
are essential. One means they are not really neces-
sary, you could get around them if you had to.
Secondly, how certain are you about them?
You will be 100 per cent sure of some, others you will be
less confident about. Again, give each a score from
one to ten. Ten for those you are completely sure of
and one for those you are not at all sure about.
When you have gone through each assumption from
both points of view, divide them into four groups:
Those you are confident about and are necessary to the
success of your plan go in the first group.
Those you are confident about but are unimportant go
in the second.
The third contains those you are uncertain about and
that are not important anyway.
Lastly there are those you are uncertain about that are
important. These are the ones to look at closely.
Lay them out on a graph as shown.