developments in central and eastern Europe since 1989: here, the thesis is that
the very different types of economic systems which have emerged reflect both
significant variations even in the period of ‘communism’, and the nationally
distinctive pathways adopted after the collapse of the former regime. Here too,
a cumulation of decisions over time can be seen as biasing subsequent policy
options. In the specific context of the globalisation debate, the theory implies
that responses to otherwise similar problems of national competitiveness will
be shaped by inherited institutional frameworks (and the ways in which these
shape the balance of power among different actors), and that these responses
will in turn differentially affect the repertoire of future decisions. Path-
dependence is not absolute: radical changes of direction are possible, particularly
in circumstances of perceived crisis. But these are the exception rather than the
rule. Normally, radical change is easier to resist than to implement – particularly,
as indicated earlier, in political systems which embody a range of checks and
balances and require compromise and accommodation among conflicting
interests.
This leads to the issue of the relative autonomy of politics. Many argu-
ments for convergence-through-globalisation rest on a rather simplistic form of
economic determinism (ironically a theory often attributed, somewhat mis-
leadingly, to Marxism). But politics have to be considered as in part an inde-
pendent factor, for at least two reasons (Boyer and Drache, 1996; Streeck,
1996). First, the thesis of institutional interlock implies that there is likely to be
a ‘fit’ between property and production regimes on the one hand and political
processes on the other. Thus Hall and Soskice (2001: 57–8) dispute ‘the
monolithic political dynamic conventionally associated with globalization’.
Intensified international competition is likely to evoke one set of political
responses in liberal market economies, another in coordinated systems.
Second, though related to this point, any attempt to dismantle the protections
embodied in systems of ‘welfare capitalism’ provokes inevitable resistance. ‘In
all industrial countries processes of economic integration and globalization are
generating a backwash of reaction and resistance in national politics. ...New
political alliances are beginning to coalesce around these issues. ...A new poli-
tics is in the making’ (Berger, 1996: 23–5). The electoral cycle is shorter than
the business cycle, and the contradictory interaction between economic analysis
and political survival results in significantly different policy outcomes
cross-nationally.
6 CONCLUSION: CONTRADICTORY TRENDS
Convergence or continued diversity? If there is a consensus emerging, it is that
there is evidence for both tendencies. Some writers suggest that there may
National industrial relations and transnational challenges 427