The Sudan Handbook

256 thE sudan handbook

it a priority to remain on good terms. It went to remarkable extremes not

to break with Sudan: in 1995 when the Sudanese regime was implicated

in an attempt to kill Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak during a visit

to Addis Ababa, many expected an interruption of diplomatic relations

at least. But this did not occur because of Egypt’s deep reluctance to

turn its back on a country that is vital to its survival. In recent years

President Mubarak supported the Sudanese government’s position on

Darfur and used his good relations with the United States to intercede

on behalf of Khartoum. It is likely that future leaders of Egypt will follow

the same pattern. Khartoum’s view of Cairo, likewise, regardless of who

is in power in Sudan, will remain superficially friendly but guarded.

Meanwhile, the long-running dispute over the Hala’ib Triangle on the

Egypt–Sudan border is a continuing source of tension. The Triangle is

now under effective Egyptian occupation, but Sudan continues to lay

claim to it. In reality, though, the Khartoum government has little means

to press its case.

Since the signing of the January 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agree-

ment (CPA) in Nairobi, Egyptian diplomacy towards Sudan has had two

aims. The first has been trying to prevent Southern Sudan’s indepen-

dence. As that aim came to seem increasingly unattainable, Cairo instead

focused on a second strategy: establishing a good relationship with Juba

in advance of secession. In November 2008 President Mubarak flew to

Southern Sudan – the first visit there by an Egyptian head of state since

Gamal Abdel Nasser’s in 1963 – and made generous promises of economic

aid. The issue is particularly pressing as Ethiopia has led a diplomatic

revolt on the part of the upstream riparian states against the 1959 Treaty

on the Nile Waters. This is a treaty that gives Egypt and Sudan the right

to 90 per cent of the flow of the river. Cairo has increased its economic

cooperation with the Provisional Regional Government in Juba. These

attempts at retaining a good relationship with an independent South

Sudan have been welcomed by the Juba authorities. Among the Arab

League, however, they are less popular, being seen as support for the

dismantling of a fellow Arab state.

The Sudan Handbook, edited by John Ryle, Justin Willis, Suliman Baldo and Jok Madut Jok. © 2011 Rift Valley Institute and contributors

(www.riftvalley.net).